Vegas Election Odds Affected By Coronavirus In USA
There is perhaps no hotter betting market than Vegas odds on the coronavirus and how the disease is affecting the US Presidential race. However, while you’ll find many such lines when looking for Vegas odds on politics, you can’t actually bet on elections or other political fare inside the US.
Remember, Vegas publishes political odds as a marketing gimmick to promote its own sportsbooks, many of which have temporarily shut down due to the coronavirus. Instead, to get in on this viral action, you can join any reputable offshore sportsbook. Trump election odds have tanked to their most favorable levels in years, so now’s the time to catch the fever!
🦠 Coronavirus Vegas Betting Odds
There are several offshore sportsbooks that currently offer political betting odds on issues surrounding COVID-19. While many sports markets have coronavirus odds focused on when league cancellations or restarts might happen, one of the most popular betting markets for the disease has to do with politics.
After all, President Trump has declared a national emergency in response to the Wuhan coronavirus, and the spread of the illness – and the panic surrounding it – have serious implications on the odds boards.
The Impact Of Coronavirus On Trump Election Odds
The Vegas election odds on Donald Trump winning a second term have dropped to the lowest levels of his Presidency at most books. In fact, at the best US betting site, Bovada, the Democratic party is favored – for the first time in years – to win the 2020 general election.
Before the COVID-19 hype really took root in America a few weeks ago, Trump was trending at a healthy -120 or so head-to-head against presumptive DNC nominee Joe Biden. Now, Biden is favored at Bovada and is very close to even with Trump at other outlets. The main outlier seems to be MyBookie, where Trump is a -140 favorite to win, which is close to his ceiling for the cycle.
President Donald Trump On Coronavirus
Coronavirus is a bigger challenge to the Trump presidency – and a bigger threat to Trump reelection – than anything else during the President’s first term. Many mainstream media outlets are accusing Trump of flippancy regarding the virus, but despite such claims being found false via cursory fact checks, the damage might already be done.
If the American people think Donald Trump has made them less safe, they are likely to vote him out of office in November. These coronavirus Trump “scandals” – fair or not – are stacking up.
However, objectively, the Trump coronavirus response has been reasonable and pragmatic under the circumstances, as he has promoted calm and concern in his recent coronavirus press conference:
“[We] are using the full power of the Federal Government to defeat the coronavirus. And we will do whatever it takes and we’re doing, I think really, really well. A lot of good things are going to happen. I want to thank all of the people standing behind me. These are phenomenal people and we have some of them right over here. But the people behind me have been working around the clock and they’re doing an incredible job.
We see what’s happening. We see what’s going on in other countries. We’re learning from watching other countries, frankly. This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible, but it’s something that we have a tremendous control of. I think very important the young people, people of good health and groups of people just are not strongly affected. Elderly people that are not well or not well in certain respects are a really a very dangerous group. We have to watch them, we have to protect them very much. We have to really watch over them and protect them because they are very vulnerable.”
Now that coronavirus press conferences happen every day, sportsbooks have started offering odds on Trump's press conferences.
Vice President Mike Pence On Coronavirus
Though not a Presidential candidate, Mike Pence betting odds show that he isn’t too far off the pace in the Republican nominee slot, at least as far as bettors are concerned. More importantly, however, Pence is in charge of the Trump administration’s Coronavirus task force. In the same press conference mentioned above, Pence has sought to reassure the American people:
“The health experts continue to confirm to us that based on the latest information, for the American people as a whole, the risk of serious illness remains low. But because the risk is heavily weighted to the most vulnerable, to people with immunodeficiencies and to people who are elderly with serious underlying chronic health conditions, our administration...will continue to focus on the most vulnerable.
And we will continue to urge every American to be vigilant in practicing good hygiene. Taking the advice of the CDC and local health experts to keep those most vulnerable, safe.”
Bernie Sanders Coronavirus Stance
Bernie Sanders, as a Democratic Socialist whose main platform is universal health care or Medicare for All (M4A), has used the coronavirus spread and summary panic to promote the idea of single-payer healthcare run by the government.
While the countries hardest hit by COVID-19 all practice socialized medicine per the Bernie model, there will be voters who move from the center to the left over fears of this pandemic, and bettors should be aware of how that might change the game for political props and primaries going forward. In his native Vermont, Sanders gave a speech about coronavirus, saying in part the following:
“The crisis we face from the coronavirus is on a scale of a major war, and we must act accordingly. The number of casualties may actually be even higher than what the armed forces experienced in World War II. …
We need to worry about those who are already sick, we need to worry about working families with children, people with disabilities, the homeless and all those who are vulnerable.”
Joe Biden Coronavirus Stance
Joe Biden is not pushing as hard for single-payer health care, but his platform promotes a larger socialized safety net for uninsured and underinsured Americans. Biden was quick to point out Italy’s single-payer system and how it failed to contain or even effectively manage COVID-19.
That said, Biden is capitalizing on the crisis politically by blaming the US coronavirus spread on Trump, and he has called Trump “racist” for noting the Wuhan, China, origin of the disease.
“Unfortunately this virus laid bare the severe shortcomings of the current administration. Public fears are being compounded by pervasive lack of trust in this president. …
We need bigger and broader measures to shore up the economic demand, protect jobs, keep credit flowing to our job creators and make sure we have the economic fire power we need to weather the storm and get the people and this economy back to full strength as soon as possible. …
Downplaying [coronavirus], being overly dismissive, or spreading misinformation is only going to hurt us and further advantage the spread of the disease. But neither should we panic or fall back on xenophobia. Labeling COVID-19 a ‘foreign virus’ does not displace accountability for the misjudgments that have been taken thus far by the Trump administration.”
How Coronavirus Affects Vegas Election Odds
There are a multitude of ways that coronavirus promises to affect election odds, not just for the 2020 Presidential election but also for the Democratic primaries and – most likely – all the US elections going forward. Below, we outline a few of the things bettors need to look out for when wagering on politics in the age of the WuFlu:
- The Stock Market – The stock market is Trump’s biggest asset, and now it’s his biggest Achilles’ heel. When the market was performing at record highs, Trump reelection seemed all but certain. Now, with the coronavirus stock selloff and historic lows at the NYSE and NASDAQ, Trump’s main win is quickly turning into a loss. Will there be time for a market correction by November? If you think so, get your Trump bets in ASAP for the best prices in years.
- Medicare For All – M4A is a major progressive Democrat talking point, more popular with “radicals” like Bernie than establishment candidates like Biden. However, coronavirus fears could stoke voters in the middle to favor single-payer healthcare, at least temporarily, which could change things in the primaries and even the November general.
- Universal Basic Income – UBI is one step beyond single-payer healthcare in terms of socialism, but it’s an idea Andrew Yang pushed to the forefront in his now-ended 2020 campaign. Biden seemed at least willing to discuss the issue, and it’s come up in spades now that many workers are facing unpaid leave over coronavirus quarantine requirements nationwide. Will this be a tipping-point issue for voters and bettors in 2020?
- The Border Wall – Trump’s “Build The Wall” mantra is picking up steam in the face of the coronavirus, and border closures and travel bans are recognized as legitimate and necessary ways to slow the spread of COVID-19. Both Sanders and Biden have claimed they wouldn’t close the southern border in the face of coronavirus, which will absolutely be Trump campaign fodder for November.
- Voting By Mail – Calls for mail-in ballots will only increase in states that don’t have them, as coronavirus threatens to impact both election turnout and election safety. If nationwide voting by mail becomes a thing, that will change the dynamics of political campaigns forever, and bettors should take note for future elections.
- Online Voting – Taking mail-in voting to its logical conclusion, the coronavirus outbreak could galvanize states to begin rolling out comprehensive online voting programs for future elections. This would increase participation incredibly, and it would be the biggest groundswell of change in campaign tactics since the advent of radio and television. Hopefully these online voting systems will use blockchain technology akin to that used by Bitcoin (which, incidentally, you can use to fund your Vegas election betting accounts at offshore sportsbooks).
- Elderly Voters – The coronavirus attacks primarily the elderly, which means that turnout could suffer in this demographic. In the remaining primaries, that helps Bernie Sanders, as his base of voters skews younger. In the general election, this could also hurt Trump’s election chances, as he polls best with those 65 and older.
- Feel The Bern – Bernie Sanders’ campaign is on life support already, and coronavirus could ironically get it off that. However, with significant primaries taking place in the next days and weeks, Sanders could be out of the race by the time you read this. All in all, Sanders has the most to gain politically from COVID-19, but it may be too late.
- Trumping Trump – Without question, people tend to blame their leaders for crises, no matter the cause or broken rationale involved. Coronavirus represents the Democrats’ best odds – and perhaps only – chance to mount an effective countercampaign and bounce Donald Trump from office in 2020. Bettors have taken note, as you can see from Trump’s falling odds.
If you’re looking for coronavirus updates to help you better understand the disease or inform your state-by-state primary election betting, you can do so through several resources. After all, an informed bettor is a good bettor, and there’s no better way to stay up on the latest coronavirus developments than by bookmarking the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracker.