Earlier this week, we brought you the good news that Donald Trump’s chances to win the 2024 Presidential election – just like he did in 2016 and 2020 – were finally back at the top of the Vegas odds boards.
They’re still there, and we suspect they’ll remain there for a considerable time going forward.
He’ll probably even spread the gap sooner than later.
Outside of that, however, there’s not been a lot to choose from.
Sure, the volume is there, as there are plenty of Vegas political props and political futures on hand.
But these odds have – by and large – grown stagnant over the last several weeks, and it seems that there’s a bit of political fatigue settling in.
Were you aware that MyBookie used to offer death pools on politicians?
Those were the days.
You know, the days when Trump was in office and the world could take a joke.
But fun and games aside, there are still things to bet on in the political realm, so we thought we’d do a US Senate election odds roundup.
2022 Senate Election Odds
Arizona Senate Election Odds
- Democrats -180
- Republicans +140
Current Senators: Mark Kelly (D), Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Antigun astronaut, military oathbreaker, and domestic puppeteer Mark Kelly won his seat to the US Senate in 2020 with 51.2% of the vote.
According to the voting machines, anyway.
Nevertheless, he’s running for a full term, but new election integrity laws in the state may make it a bit more difficult to cook the books. Still, as the incumbent, he’s the favorite.
GOP challengers potentially include Jim Lamon, Robert Paveza, Andy Biggs, Mark Brnovich, and Blake Masters.
As Arizona Attorney General, Brnovich would be the Republican favorite should he formally run for the post.
Florida Senate Election Odds
- Republicans -350
- Democrats +225
Current Senators: Marco Rubio (R), Rick Scott (R)
Little Marco Rubio has announced that he’s running for a third term, and he’s currently strongly favored.
Nobody in the FL GOP primary field is particularly notable, and despite his milquetoast demeanor, Rubio should coast to another six years in the upper chamber.
Georgia Senate Election Odds
- Democrats -140
- Republicans +100
Current Senators: Jon Ossoff (D), Raphael Warnock (D)
As in AZ, Georgia’s 2022 Senate election will see a special election “winner,” in this case Raphael Warnok (D), try to earn a full term.
Warnock will likely face zero primary challengers.
On the GOP side, four candidates have declared their intent to run: Gary Black, Kelvin King, Latham Saddler, and Herschel Walker.
Walker – the former NCAA and NFL star – is popular in Atlanta, but as you’ll see further down these odds listings, he’s not expected to win.
Warnock is beatable, and we like the GOP here, but Black – the current AG commissioner in the state – seems the most obvious pick right now.
Nevada Senate Election Odds
- Democrats -170
- Republicans +130
Current Senators: Catherine Cortez Masto (D), Jacky Rosen (D)
Former potential VP candidate Catherine Cortez Masto is running for reelection on the Democratic ticket in Nevada.
She’ll probably win.
Nevada is home to Sin City, after all.
New Hampshire Senate Election Odds
- Democrats -130
- Republicans -110
Current Senators: Jeanne Shaheen (D), Maggie Hassan (D)
Democrat Maggie Hassan – the incumbent – has declared her reelection bid. That said, NH is always a wild card. The freshman Senator is favored, but just barely.
North Carolina Senate Election Odds
- Republicans -350
- Democrats +225
Current Senators: Richard Burr (R), Thom Tillis (R)
GOP Sen. Richard Burr announced that he’s retiring after three terms, leaving the door open for the GOP to fill his seat with some species of heir apparent.
Trump-endorsed candidate Ted Budd of the Freedom Caucus in the US House has declared his candidacy and will likely win.
Former NC governor Pat McCrory has also declared his candidacy on the GOP side.
Ohio Senate Election Odds
- Republicans -800
- Democrats +425
Current Senators: Sherrod Brown (D), Rob Portman (R)
Current two-term GOP Senator Rob Portman has wussed out, citing “partisan gridlock” as his rationale for not seeking a third term. Good riddance.
A total of 11 candidates have officially declared to run on the GOP side, with Trump favorite JD Vance being the most noteworthy to date.
Pennsylvania Senate Election Odds
- Democrats -180
- Republicans +140
Current Senators: Bob Casey, Jr. (D), Pat Toomey (R)
Two-termer Pat Toomey – heretofore known as Pat Twomey – has elected to not seek reelection and will “go back to the private sector.”
The Democrats desperately need to flip Twomey’s seat, and the race should be close.
But Trump won PA before he “didn’t,” so just keep that in mind.
Wisconsin Senate Election Odds
- Republicans -135
- Democrats -105
Current Senators: Ron Johnson (R), Tammy Baldwin (D)
Republican Ron Johnson has served two terms representing WI in the US Senate, and though earlier stating he’d not seek a third, he hasn’t bowed out just yet.
If you can trust the numbers, Johnson won reelection in 2020 with 50.17% of the vote, so the left is looking for a Bleu Wave™ in the Cheese State.
Which party will control the US Senate after the 2022 elections?
- Republicans -140
- Democrats +100
Just two days ago, this line was a tossup with both parties pulling -120 odds.
As you can see, the GOP has finally pulled ahead convincingly.
These balance of power numbers are now in line with the US House of Representatives odds for 2022, which currently favor Republicans at -300 over the Democrats at +200.
Remember, the current Senate is evenly split at 50-50.
There are 34 different Senate races for 2022, and while the odds boards currently only offer lines for the above contests, we’ll assume that the requisite parties keep their seats in those states not featured here.
With that as a condition of analysis, should all the current favorites win their respective races, the GOP will actually lose the Senate by two seats (51-49).
In the above races, only one seat is favored to flip: Pat Twomey’s in PA.
For the odds to show a strong indication of an overall GOP win in the Senate, then, there must be at least two other seats in play that aren’t yet on the betting boards.
We wonder which ones…
Herschel Walker To Win Georgia Senate Race
- No -250
- Yes +170
LOL, keep walkin’, Hersch.
We love you, but there is no joy in Mudville.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -175 (-175)
- No +135 (+135)
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 +110 (+110)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +400 (+400)
- 2021 +550 (+550)
- 2023 +750 (+750)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1200 (-1200)
- Yes +500 (+500)
Joe Biden Approval Rating On October 1, 2021
- Over 45.0% -150 (45.5% -140)
- Under 45.0% +110 (45.5% +100)
It’s a push!
Today is October 1, and Joe Biden’s FiveThirtyEight aggregated approval rating is exactly 45.0%.
Depending on what time this rating is certified by BetOnline, payouts could go either way.
But a push would be most apropos.
The Biden “presidency” has been nothing if not disappointing and unprofitable.
Mea culpa: We told you to take the over at 45.5%. We apologize.