Biden Odds Outpace Trump Odds For All Props Down The Homestretch

angry joe biden pointing his finger at donald trump

There are only four days to go!

That is, if you don’t count the freaking month it’s going to take to sort out the election results after November 3 (which, incidentally, is something you can actually bet on because everyone sees that writing on the wall).

Right now, here’s where the big race – Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden – stands at the three top Vegas election betting sites:  

2020 Presidential Election Odds


  • Joe Biden -175
  • Donald Trump +145


  • Joe Biden -180
  • Donald Trump +160


  • Joe Biden -175
  • Donald Trump +135

At Bovada, Biden leads Trump by 20 points, while his lead is 140 points at BetOnline and 110 points at MyBookie.

These lines are closer than they were just a week or two ago, when the delta between candidates saw Creepy Joe leading the Bad Orange Man by over 300 points across the board.

However, given that there are just a few days until the Big Day, we don’t expect the odds to change too much more down the homestretch. After all, it’s a bit late for October surprises, especially if the mainstream media ignores them.

That said, there are several lines that could still move a bit, and these come in the form of the 2020 election’s political prop bets.

Up until now, the top sportsbooks with political odds have been more miss that hit when it comes to offering comprehensive, thoughtful betting lines on the minutiae surrounding the various national and state races.

For a long time, only MyBookie Sportsbook reliably put out a massive prop menu.

That’s finally changed, as each major operator now has a host of bets you can place on the various outcomes slated for November 3.

Even Bovada, which has shied away from offering political prop bets of almost any kind this cycle (beyond the absolute most boring basics), has a solid selection to choose from in this final week of betting.

Oddly, BetOnline has usurped MyBookie’s crown as the current leader in election props available right now. When such wagers were focused on debates and current events, MyBookie was killing it, but now that the election is just four days away, their lines solely reflect various race outcomes, and BetOnline is doing things much more bigly.  

Here are the most interesting props from all three major sportsbooks, starting with the options at BetOnline:

2020 Presidential Election Prop Bets

Via BetOnline

Voter Turnout in the US Presidential Election

  • Over 149.5 million voters -225  
  • Under 149.5 million voters +160

In 2016, 138.8 million people voted in the United States, which is the all-time record. In 2012, 129.2 million people voted, while in 2008, 131.4 million people cast their ballots. Year-to-year gains tend to fluctuate, and elections with incumbents tend to pull lower numbers than elections with a vacant presidency.

On only two occasions in US history, Presidential elections saw cycle-over-cycle increases of around 13 million voters. This line is effectively asking bettors if that’s going to happen for just the third time ever.

Given the vote by mail push and the fact that over 70 million ballots have already been cast through the post alone, we’re going against our better judgment and are taking the over here.  

Voter Turnout in the US Presidential Election

  • Over 60.5% -150
  • Under 60.5% +110

A 60% voter threshold is not unattainable, as it’s happened several times in US Presidential elections. However, it’s rare, especially in recent times. Most turnout hovers around 50-55%. The last time a Presidential election saw turnout exceeding 60% was in 1968.

In 2016, only 55.5% of registered voters cast a ballot in the race. While we think over 149.5 million people will vote, registrations have skyrocketed for both parties since 2016, so the 60% threshold may not hold. We’d take the under if we had to pick, but we’re not betting on this one.

Democratic Party Election Sweep

  • Yes -155  
  • No +125

This wager is asking whether or not the Democrats will keep the House, win the Senate, and take the White House. We like the “No” at +125, as the Senate elections seem to marginally favor the GOP by most current polls and reports.

House Seats Won by Democrats

  • Over 209.5 Seats -2000    
  • Under 209.5 Seats +900    

All 435 US House seats are up for grabs in 2020. Currently, Democrats hold 232 seats, while Republicans hold 197 seats (with one Libertarian seat and five vacancies).

There is very little chance that the left won’t hold at least 210 seats, so we’re taking the over, even with that meager payout. Barring a historic shift, it’s a sure thing.

Majority Control of the US Senate

  • DEM Senators in 117th Congress -155  
  • REP Senators in 117th Congress +115

As stated above, we think the GOP will keep the Senate. However, given that the odds against a Democratic sweep are sitting at +125, that pays out better for effectively the same outcome. So our money’s going on that line, not this one.     

U.S. Presidential Election Special

  • Biden to Win Electoral College & Popular Vote -180   
  • Trump to Win Presidency & Lose Popular Vote +280
  • Trump to Win Presidency & Popular Vote +475
  • Biden to Win Electoral College & Lose Popular Vote +2000

If you think the Trump betting odds are valued favorably and that the incumbent will win reelection, go with option two above. If you think Biden’s got this in the bag, take option one.

The other two choices are far-fetched and nonsensical, respectively. Still, since we aren’t confident about which candidate is going to pull off the W, we’re abstaining here.    

Will Trump lose every state he lost in 2016?

  • Yes -210  
  • No +170   

Probably not. That doesn’t happen too often. Take the “No” at +170.

Will Trump win every state he won in 2016?

  • No -550   
  • Yes +325  

Probably not. That doesn’t happen too often. Take the “No” at -550.

Winner of popular vote wins electoral college

  • Yes -240  
  • No +190

Historically, you should be betting “Yes” on this. The only hitch is that the last time it happened was when Trump was on the ballot, and he’s on the ballot again.

2020 Presidential Election Prop Bets

Via Bovada

Which party will have control of the US Senate?

  • Democrats -160
  • Republicans +120

The GOP pays out a little bit better on this line here at Bovada than it does at BetOnline, but it’s still not as good as the negative on the “clean sweep” line at the latter.

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 Presidential election?

  • Democrats -550
  • Republicans +350

Probably the Democrats. Again, not a great payout, but it seems close to a sure thing.

How many of the following states will Biden win: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI?

  • Over 5.5 -130
  • Under 5.5 + 100 (EVEN)

If you believe the MSM polls, take the over. If you believe the rightwing media polls, take the under. If you don’t believe any of them, avoid this line like the coronavirus.

How many of the following states will Biden win: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI?

  • Biden to win 6 States +275
  • Biden to win 5 States +325
  • Biden to win 7 States +350
  • Biden to win 4 States +600
  • Biden to win 8 States +750
  • Biden to win 3 States +1600
  • Biden to win 9 States +2500
  • Biden to win 2 States +4500
  • Biden to win 1 State +5500
  • Biden to win all 10 States +6600
  • Biden to lose all 10 States +7500

Exact outcome bets are tough to hit. We tend to ignore these, so your guess is better than ours.

How many of the following states will Trump win: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI?

  • Over 4.5 -145
  • Under 4.5 +110

See above.

How many of the following states will Trump win: AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI?

  • Trump to win 5 States +300
  • Trump to win 4 States +350
  • Trump to win 6 States +350
  • Trump to win 3 States +600
  • Trump to win 7 States +600
  • Trump to win 2 States +1500
  • Trump to win 8 States +2200
  • Trump to win 1 State +4500
  • Trump to win 9 States +6000
  • Trump to lose all 10 States +6600
  • Trump to win all 10 States +7000

See above again.

2020 Presidential Election Prop Bets

Via MyBookie

Party to win the popular vote in the 2020 election

  • Democrats -500
  • Republicans +300

MyBookie has better payouts on the left for this prop compared against the Bovada option, which is why you should always join multiple online betting sites and shop lines for the best values.

Democrats are a very safe bet to win the popular vote in 2020, and though -500 doesn’t give you too much bang for your buck, it’s a lot better than -550.  

What position will Nancy Pelosi hold on January 21, 2021?

  • Speaker of the House -50000
  • US President +4000

On principle, we’re never putting money on something with -50000 odds. Ever. So we’ll earmark a ten-spot for US President for +4000, Alex.

What day will the losing candidate concede the 2020 Presidential election?

  • Nov. 13 or later -145
  • Nov. 4 +225
  • Nov. 3 +400
  • Nov. 5 +500
  • Nov. 6 +650
  • Nov. 7 +800
  • Nov. 10 +800
  • Nov. 11 +800
  • Nov. 8 +900
  • Nov. 9 +900
  • Nov. 12 +1200

Earlier in the cycle, we liked the favorite (Nov. 13). Now, we like it even better, though several swing states have been forced to give up their after-election ballot counting schemes.

Given the massive potential for several state election outcomes to be legally contested, we can’t see either candidate conceding until well after the 11th hour.

Who will die first?

  • Donald Trump -130
  • Vladimir Putin -110

Okay, this isn’t an election bet, but it’s nice to see that MyBookie found its sack and decided to put their famous “Death Matchups” back online. Of course, with this particular line, it’s a tough call. Plus, you know, “legends never die” and all that. For what it’s worth, Trump is 74 years old, while Putin is 68 years old.