Kanye West, the American rapper and business mogul, is no stranger to moving at his own beat. And often, when he drops one of those beats, he rockets up the charts overnight.
At the top Vegas election betting sites, that’s already happened after West announced his bid to run for President on the Fourth of July.
Today, just two days after his informal announcement, West is in the middle of the pack to win the 2020 general election, trending right behind the favorites you’ve been seeing for months.
2020 US Presidential Election Winner
Via Bovada
- Joe Biden -150
- Donald Trump +135
- Hillary Clinton +5000
- Kanye West +6000
- Mike Pence +6600
- Michelle Obama +8000
- Andrew Cuomo +15000
- Nikki Haley +15000
Via BetOnline
- Joe Biden -160
- Donald Trump +130
- Mike Pence +4000
- Hillary Clinton +5000
- Kanye West +10000
- Michelle Obama +10000
- Nikki Haley +12500
- Elizabeth Warren +20000
- Mark Cuban +25000
Via MyBookie
- Joe Biden -150
- Donald Trump +100
- Kanye West +5000
- Hillary Clinton +5000
- Mike Pence +6000
- Michelle Obama +8000
- Andrew Cuomo +8000
- Nikki Haley +10000
West, a longtime outspoken Trump supporter, has been moved by the recent BLM protests and riots, which make up some of the thematic material for his upcoming album.
However, it is unlikely that his actual politics have diverted to the left, leaving many to wonder under what banner he’d run any potential 2020 Presidential campaign.
While many believe West’s announcement to be a simple publicity stunt for his new record (to be played on Joe Biden’s record player, no doubt), others – especially on the Democrat side – are taking his statement a bit more seriously.
Some particularly hysterical leftists in the entertainment bubble are very worried about West and a third-party run, should that be the course he chooses.
Hidden among the eyerolls and the I’m-with-yous are tweets like this, care of actress Debra Messing:
Naturally, the right – and the not-so-right – pounced on Messing’s blatant assertion that the Democrat Party has some innate “right” to “young black voters,” whom apparently lack agency and free choice, according to Messing (and Joe “You Ain’t Black” Biden himself).
Indeed, pushing back hardest against Messing’s mess was none other than Bernie Sanders campaign co-chair Nina Turner:
Yeesh and cringe.
Of course, if West does run, he would almost certainly be forced to take up the mantle under an independent ticket.
The problem with that, however, is that the filing deadline to announce a run under such a ticket has already passed in several key states (i.e. NC, NM), though most remain in play for a late push.
Other hurdles include getting the requisite numbers of petitions to be featured on the general election ballot.
That said, it seems like a dead cert that West could easily muster up the tens of thousands of signatures needed nationwide, coronavirus or no coronavirus. And at a shared net worth of over two billion dollars with wife Kim Kardashian, his campaign coffers are as deep as he wants them to be.
Naturally, a full court press for POTUS only makes sense if West wants to win the White House and become the 46th President of the United States, which may not be the case.
While Messing’s distastefully framed assertions above are repugnant in their implications, she’s actually not far off the strategy – if there is one. (Remember, West is second only to The Donald is self-promotion, and this could be nothing more than hype for his album, various clothing lines, and general branding.)
But if West is serious, he should be taken seriously. Not to win the Presidential election, no – but to affect its outcome in a meaningful way.
All third parties play spoiler in the US two-party system. No third-party candidate has ever won a Presidential election, nor has any come particularly close outside of Teddy Roosevelt (1912) and Ross Perot (1992), who claimed 27.4% and 18.9% of the popular vote, respectively.
Both, naturally, got gutted in the electoral vote, and the elections were not particularly close.
But if a late West entry in key swing states can siphon off the presumed “black vote” in any kind of volume at all, that could give Trump reelection a boost in 2020, and it might win him his second term almost outright.
Bettors seem to be wise to this.
On the boards above, while Biden is still trouncing Trump, the delta is way down since the West announcement.
At BetOnline, going into 4th of July weekend, Trump was trailing Creepy Joe by 130 points. Today, he’s down just 90. That’s a 40-point swing, and it’s not likely a result of Trump’s Mt. Rushmore visit or Independence Day speech alone.
Similarly, MyBookie had Biden leading -160 to +120, up by 80 points. Today, Uncle Joe is leading by only 50, which is a 30-point swing in Trump’s favor.
Even at Bovada, which sees smaller, slower swings than the other top Vegas election betting sites, Trump is climbing back up thanks to West’s announcement. On Friday, Trump was 100 points back, trailing Biden -160 to +140. Today, Trump is only 85 points back per the odds posted above.
Aside from the election odds themselves, West has become the subject of a few amusing political prop bets at BetOnline. This was inevitable, but only BetOnline consistently gives its customers these kinds of side bets, which is something other books should probably take more seriously.
Kanye West Political Props
Will President Trump tweet “Kanye”?
- No -500
- Yes +300
Will Kanye West win a state in the 2020 election?
- No -2500
- Yes +800
Will Kanye West participate in an election debate?
- No -300
- Yes +200
The #YeForPresident situation – aka #2020VISION – is brand new, and we will cover every aspect of his potential campaign here in the coming weeks and months.
For bettors, again, a Kanye West Presidential bid should be viewed not in the context of a win or loss, as he will certainly lose the general election.
Instead, it should be viewed in his campaign’s ability to draw crucial voters from the Democrat side in aid of Trump (and, admittedly, bleed off some of Trump’s black support). It is through this lens that you should view the new betting lines for Biden vs. Trump as they come out.
As with voters, informed bettors are more likely to hit the nail on the head. Except with betting, you can actually make money doing it.
Just don’t expect Kanye to announce your new billionaire status on Twitter or Instagram when you hit the jackpot…