Happy Monday!
But since we haven’t had our coffee yet, we’ll dispense with further pleasantries and get right into it.
Here’s a curious betting line from Bovada:
2022 Texas Governor Election Odds – Winner
- Greg Abbott -350
- Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke +550
- Matthew McConaughey +550
- Julian Castro +5000
- Joaquin Castro +5000
These odds are a bit strange in several ways.
Firstly and foremostly, the fact that Bovada is favoring incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) at only -350 (a massive delta over Beta though it is) strikes us as somewhat silly.
Abbott is one of the most popular Governors in America, right behind Florida’s Ron DeSantis, while TX is notably still more red than the purple Sunshine State.
(That’s why the DeSantis odds actually favor The Ronald to win the FL gubernatorial election by a smaller margin than the Abbott odds favor the Republican in Texas. And this is true even as DeSantis is fourth on the 2024 Presidential election odds boards at +800, while Abbott is 63rd at +30000.)
Note also that over at BetOnline, Abbott is trending at -800 to be reelected, while the field is pulling odds of +425.
Secondly, the 2022 Texas Governor race odds posted at Bovada still include Matthew McConaughey at +550, despite the TX actor releasing a statement Sunday that he is not tossing his hat into the ring.
Normally, sportsbooks always refund bets taken on any line after a given outcome is publicly known, but in this case, they’re probably happy to take your money if you still go on their posted McConaughey Governor odds.
But that would be foolhardy on your part, so we recommend that you simply use the news of the actor’s out to hop on the Abbott lines before the attached payout gets even worse.
Conversely, you could also wait a bit and bet on Beto, as his odds should lengthen sooner than later.
And hell yes, he still wants to take your AK-15 and AR-47, 30 magazine clips and all. He probably even wants to ban that shoulder thing that goes up so you can only ever fire two blasts. You know, like Alec Baldwin.
With that line out of the way, here’s an interesting series of nonsense that’s been a mainstay at MyBookie for months, and it’s now getting some inexplicable traction at BetOnline, too:
Liz Cheney Election Odds
Will Liz Cheney be reelected to the US House of Representatives in 2022?
- No -600
- Yes +300
No. They Wyoming GOP has already disavowed US House Rep. Liz Cheney, and she can’t credibly rebrand as a Democrat or an independent given her political lineage (although her daddy did a Baldwin and he’s a Democrat, so you never really know).
Ultimately, Cheney’s Never Trumper-ism did her in a long time ago (and snuffed out Dan Crenshaw’s rising stardom at the same time, so you probably shouldn’t bet on him, either).
Will Liz Cheney run for President in 2024?
- Yes -150
- No +110
She might as well.
Cheney isn’t in the same situation as DeSantis – that is, where going up against Trump could kneecap her future political career a la Ted Cruz. She basically has nothing left to lose, as her goose is already cooked in her home state of Wyoming.
Of course, she is chummy with Mitt Romney, so she could potentially follow his lead on Carpetbagging for Dummies™ and end up in Vermont or something.
Will Liz Cheney be reelected in Wyoming?
- No -650
- Yes +375
See above.
2024 Presidential Election Odds – Republican Nominee
- Donald Trump -110
- Ron DeSantis +425
- Nikki Haley +900
- Mike Pence +1600
- Tucker Carlson +1600
- Glenn Youngkin +3000
- Kristi Noem +3000
- Mike Pompeo +3000
- Ted Cruz +3300
- Ivanka Trump +4000
- Josh Hawley +4000
- Marco Rubio +4000
- Tom Cotton +4000
- Tim Scott +4500
- Ben Sasse +5000
- Chris Christie +5000
- Donald Trump Jr. +5000
- Liz Cheney +5000
- Mitt Romney +5000
- Dan Crenshaw +6000
- + More
Here, Cheney is – according to bettors – the 15th most likely candidate (tied with several others) to win the GOP nomination.
Given the fact that the Republican Party in Wyoming has expelled her, however, this seems a bit dubious.
That said, she’s got no reason not to run, especially since she’s not going to win reelection to Wyoming’s only seat in the US House of Representatives.
Politically, her brand can’t get any more soiled, and she hates Trump enough to make a weak-willed effort to siphon off some establishment GOP funding for the 2024 cycle.
We think she’ll do exactly that, but we also think she won’t make it very far in primary season. And that’s regardless of whether Trump actually runs or not.
2024 Presidential Election Odds – Winner
- Donald Trump +250
- Joe Biden +325
- Kamala Harris +800
- Ron DeSantis +800
- Pete Buttigieg +1500
- Nikki Haley +1800
- Elizabeth Warren +2500
- Mike Pence +2500
- Tucker Carlson +2800
- Dwayne Johnson +3300
- …
- Liz Cheney +10000
- Paul Ryan +10000
- Stacey Abrams +10000
- Ben Carson +12500
- Ben Sasse +12500
- Hillary Clinton +12500
- John Kasich +12500
- Rand Paul +12500
- Joe Rogan +15000
- Val Demings +15000
- + More
Here, Cheney is 38th on the betting boards (ties notwithstanding), trending alongside other Democrats, RINOs, and also-rans with zero chance of winning the nation’s highest office.
In other words, right where she belongs.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his full first term?
- Yes -220 (-220)
- No +155 (+155)
Joe Biden Exit Date
- 2025 -140 (-140)
- Not Before 2026 +335 (+335)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- 2023 +550 (+550)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
- 2021 +5000 (+5000)
Will Joe Biden leave office via Presidential impeachment?
- No -900 (-900)
- Yes +500 (+500)
Joe Biden Approval Rating By December 1, 2021
- TBA (Under 43%, -125; Over 42%, -115)
These odds have been taken down for now, given that we’re just a few days from December 1 and Biden’s average approval rating cratered to an all-time low over the Thanksgiving holiday.