There’s not a whole lot of new fare on the Vegas election odds boards, so we decided to switch it up a bit and cover the current betting lines that look like sure things.
Now, there are never any actual “sure things” when it comes to betting on US political odds, international political odds, current event odds, entertainment odds, etc., but some lines are borderline can’t-miss. And those are what we’re interested in.
To be clear, the payouts won’t always be very good, especially given the lower max bets that these kinds of lines come with. But for our money, these wagers look like free money.
As usual, we’re including relevant odds from all three of the major Vegas political betting sites:
Vegas Election Betting Sure Things™
2022 Hungarian Prime Minister Election – Winner
- Viktor Orban -400 (-220)
- Peter Marki-Zay +250 (+150)
Despite the American media’s depiction of Viktor Orban as a “Russian puppet” (where have you heard that before?), the guy is extremely popular in Hungary for stemming the tide of illegal immigration into the country against the EU’s meddlesome wishes.
Ever since this line was first posted several months ago, Orban was stuck at -220 odds to be reelected. Those, we thought, we quite low.
Now, his odds are up to -400, which is much more reasonable.
And they’ll probably narrow even more as the March 10, 2022, election date nears.
French Presidential Election: Top-2 Finish
- Emmanuel Macron -1000 (-1000)
- Marine Le Pen -140 (+100)
- Valerie Pecresse +135 (+100)
- Eric Zimmour +300 (+300)
- Jean-Luc Melenchon +1100 (+1000)
- Yanick Jadot +4000 (+4000)
- Anne Hidalgo +5500 (+5500)
- Nicholas Dupont-Aignan +12500 (+12500)
- Pierre de Villiers +12500 (+12500)
These are the French we’re talking about, so of course Emmanuel Macron is going to finish in the top two!
In fact, he’s basically a sure shot to win outright, and that line pays out substantially more at -300.
2022 Philippine Presidential Election – Winner
- Bongbong Marcos -600 (-1200)
- Leni Robredo +350 (+1000)
- Manny Pacquiao +1200 (+1000)
- Isko Moreno +2000 (+1400)
- Bong Go +10000 (+10000)
- Sara Duterte-Carpio +10000 (+6500)
- Alan Peter Cayetano +15000 (+15000)
- Antonio Trillanes +15000 (+15000)
While his odds have slipped a bit, Bongbong Marcos is still the heavy favorite and will win easily. Plus, his “running mate” for VP is Sara Duterte-Carpio, who herself would have been a serious contender for President had she chosen that route.
Together, they’re an unstoppable super team.
This Trump-DeSantis 2024, only in Tagalog.
Manny Pacquiao for Philippine President?
- No -5000 (-2800)
- Yes +1200 (+900)
Once the betting favorite, the Pac Mac no longer has even a puncher’s chance.
Who will control the US House of Representatives after the 2022 Midterms?
- Republicans -800 (-800)
- Democrats +425 (+425)
The GOP in an historic landslide.
Will Donald Trump be elected to the US House at the 2022 Midterms?
- No -2500 (-2500)
- Yes +800 (+800)
Don’t be ridiculous.
Will Donald Trump become Speaker of the House after the 2022 Midterms?
- No -1500 (-1500)
- Yes +600 (+600)
Don’t be absurd.
Beto O’Rourke For Texas Governor In 2022?
- No -1000 (-1000)
- Yes +550 (+550)
Hell no, he’s not taking your Texas governorship.
Greg Abbott Re-Elected In Texas In 2022?
- Yes -1000 (-1000)
- No +550 (+550)
But hell yes, he is.
Will Donald Trump hold a July 4th rally?
- No -200 (-175)
- Yes +150 (+135)
We don’t see why this one’s posted at -200 on the negative. Trump is obviously going to put on a massive rally for Independence Day.
Will Donald Trump officially launch his 2024 Presidential campaign in 2022?
- No -350 (-220)
- Yes +225 (+155)
Absolutely not. There’s no way Trump is going to distract the voters from the Midterms. Plus, there are fundraising benefits for not announcing too soon.
If Trump is actually going to run, he’ll make the announcement in early 2023.
Will Donald Trump Twitter account be restored during 2022?
- No -3300 (-3300)
- Yes +900 (+900)
Bet everything you have left in your bankroll on the favorite. You might only get a $5 payout, but this one actually is free money.
Will Hillary Clinton be indicted in 2022?
- No -10000 (-10000)
- Yes +2000 (+2000)
Not a chance.
However, of all the sure things, we don’t advise going on this one because you’d have to tie up your entire stack for a literal $1 payout. This is a sucker’s bet even when you win.
Just like voting for Hillary.
Will Joe Biden be impeached by June 30, 2023?
- No -390
- Yes +270
If the GOP retakes the US House, Joe Biden impeachment odds will be through the roof. You should bet on this political futures line now while the payout on “Yes” is still a healthy +270.
Remember, the above wager is simply asking if Biden will be impeached, not whether he’s going to be impeached and removed from office.
There’s a big difference between the two.
Impeached, yes. Removed, no.
US Presidential Election 2024 – Democratic Candidate
- Field -275 (-275)
- Joe Biden +200 (+200)
The field, obviously.
Will Kanye West and Julia Fox announce they are pregnant in 2022?
- No -200
- Yes +150
This only counts as a political betting line because Kanye West (Birthday Party) looks like he’s shaping up to be a regular Presidential election candidate for the foreseeable future.
The “sure thing” angle comes from the fact that Ye is probably in no rush to have more kids at the outset of a relationship. That didn’t work out so well the last time around.
Which couple will break up first?
- Kanye West/Julia Fox -140
- Pete Davidson/Kim Kardashian +100
Pete Davidson and Kim Kardashian. Seriously, who could tolerate that weird loser in any romantic capacity for more than a month or two?
Side note: Amusingly, Kanye had a previous relationship with another J. Foxx, and that one led to a hit song called “Gold Digger.” If this J. Fox coupling proves to go in the same direction, the outcome might be similarly…musical.
First Organization/Country To Send Humans To Mars
- SpaceX -400
- Blue Origin +400
- Boeing +500
- NASA +1500
- Russia +2200
- China +3500
- US Space Force +5000
- Field +10000
- United Arab Emirates +12500
The sure bet here is “none of the above.”
However, if you absolutely have to pick one, SpaceX (-400) is the only entity that’s actually mentioned going to Mars as a company prerogative.
Of course, everything Elon Musk says is a giant lie, and this is no different.
2022 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his full first term?
- Yes -220 (-220)
- No +155 (+155)
We still think this one’s a dead cert on “No” at +155.
Joe Biden Exit Date
- 2025 -180 (-180)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +450 (+450)
- 2023 +550 (+550)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
2023 probably, but 2022 is a distinct possibility.
If you go on both, you can manufacture a sure thing at a reduced payout.
Joe Biden Approval Rating On Feb. 1, 2022
- Between 41.0% and 41.99% -135
- Under 41% +185 (Under 42% -130)
- Between 42.0% and 42.99% +400 (+115)
- 43% or higher +1200 (Between 43.0% and 43.99% +600; 44% or higher +3000)
Will Joe Biden be reelected to a second term?
- No -800 (-800)
- Yes +425 (+425)
This is the surest bet of the bunch, as there’s no way Biden will be elected again in 2024.