As the Afghanistan situation continues to implode and calls for Dementia Joe’s removal from office ramp up on one side of the aisle, the American political picture is as muddy as ever.
At least, for pundits and analysts, it is.
For Vegas election bettors, things are starting to look crystal clear.
And if the various campaigns about to kick off for the 2022 Midterms and gubernatorial races know what’s good for them, they’ll start putting less faith in the polls and more faith in the betting lines at the sites we routinely cover.
Heck, they might even navigate over to PredictIt to see where that particular subset of public sentiment is trending.
Naturally, we prefer to take the politisphere’s temperature at legitimate political betting sites, because there’s a lot more money on the line for each “voter.”
But PredictIt has become an interesting resource in its own right. Not to place “bets,” mind you, but to see where those who don’t bet at online sportsbooks are putting their (comparatively minute amounts of) money.
Skin in the game is skin in the game, after all.
And while PredictIt is not technically a sportsbook (and cannot legally be so), it does offer a unique sort of “gambling” that has some merit.
Effectively, it treats events and candidates as “stocks” and serves as a sort of low-key political money market.
While we don’t recommend joining PredictIt if you want to win meaningful amounts of cash on your election props and political futures bets, it can be a fun diversion, even if you’re merely an observer.
And again, it’s actually pretty valuable as a point of reference – or a counterpoint of reference – when assembling your actual election wagers at proper betting sites.
PredictIt Odds Vs. Vegas Election Odds
Republican 2024 Presidential Nominee?
- Donald Trump – 32 cents
- Ron DeSantis – 22 cents
- Donald Trump +175
- Ron DeSantis +475
Trump is favored at all outlets now, including PredictIt (which tends to skew Democratic in most cases, given the leanings of its target audience and its status as a respected “source” for the mainstream “news” media).
Of course, Trump’s a bigger favorite – apples to apples – at the online sportsbooks, because online sports bettors know a sure thing when they see it.
Democratic 2024 Presidential Nominee
- Joe Biden – 37 cents
- Kamala Harris – 30 cents
- Joe Biden +130
- Kamala Harris +180
This is about 1:1 at both venues. Utterly mindboggling.
Neither pol will be on the 2024 Democratic ticket.
Which party will win the US House in 2022?
- Republican – 72 cents
- Democratic – 30 cents
- Republican -300
- Democratic +200
Ten percent inflation. Three-dollar gas. Record unemployment. Endless lockdowns. Open borders.
The writing was already on the wall.
And that was before Afghanistan.
At this point, it’s literally just the GOP vs. the voting machine software.
Which party will win the US Senate in 2022?
- Republican – 53 cents
- Democratic – 48 cents
- Republican -120
- Democratic -120
At most sportsbooks – right up until the Afghanistan debacle – the left was favored to maintain its control of the upper chamber.
The books now have it as a toss-up, while PredictIt traders are more bullish on the GOP.
Biden’s 538 approval for August 31?
- 46.6% or lower – 41 cents
- 46.7% or higher – 18 cents
- Odds removed
When this line was first posted at the sportsbooks a month ago, Biden approval on September 1 was heavily favored to be over 52.5% (-130).
Now, the books have cleared the odds off the boards entirely.
Also, we gave you terrible advice on this line back then. We apologize.
Of course, like Biden, we could blame it all on Trump. But unlike Biden, we won’t.
Will Biden resign during his first term?
- No – 76 cents
- Yes – 24 cents
- No -165
- Yes +125
Not a chance.
And to be fair, the BetOnline odds above aren’t for this specific question. There are no Presidential resignation odds at the sportsbook just yet.
Instead, the line you see is for whether or not Biden will complete his first term as President.
That’s close enough, albeit it’s a bit more flexible, as it accounts for removal via resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment, impeachment, death in office, etc.
Harris to be 47th US President?
- No – 54 cents
- Yes – 46 cents
- Joe Biden +350
- Donald Trump +400
- Kamala Harris +400
- Ron DeSantis +900
- + More
Nope. She won’t be. At least, not as elected.
But if One-Foot-In-The-Grave Joe goes all in, then she will.
Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?
- No – 73 cents
- Yes – 27 cents
- No -300
- Yes +200
These lines both jibe. Newsome won’t be recalled.
We’d love to be wrong on this one, and we’d consider our losing wager to be money well spent.
Marijuana federally rescheduled (i.e. legalized/decriminalized) by 4/20/22?
- No – 82 cents
- Yes – 18 cents
There aren’t any political or current event odds for this at any of the Vegas election betting sites we frequent, but it’s worth including.
The way things are going, outside of political betting, weed is the only thing that can possibly keep the country sane.
It’s also the one thing Biden could ram through to save his approval ratings, his legacy, and many down-ticket careers for vulnerable Democrats in several key states.
Better to be a Pot Pol™ than Pol Pot, amirite?
There’s a glimmer of a chance this happens, but just a glimmer.
The above are just a tiny fraction of all the things you can buy and sell “shares” on at PredictIt.
In fact, the site offers far more political fare than any of the sportsbooks we recommend, but that’s precisely because it’s not a sportsbook.
PredictIt incurs no risk regardless of any outcome.
Instead, members trade shares correspondent to these outcomes, and the only way for any trader to make money is to buy shares – or “place a bet” – on a given side and then sell those shares once their trading prices go up.
This works like the stock market or cryptocurrency market, not like a traditional betting market.
Whenever a trader’s shares rise in value as reflects current public sentiment, they can sell those shares. PredictIt takes a cut, and the members gets the rest.
It’s an appealing and interesting model, but the site limits are so low that these “wagers” amount to little more than penny slots – with penny payouts!
Many of these lines are available at sites like Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie, each with much higher betting maximums and comparatively substantial payouts across the board.
By all means, use PredictIt to gauge your wagers, but don’t bother spending money there.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
Yes -165 (-180)
No +125 (+140)
Joe Biden Approval Rating On September 1, 2021
- Over N/A (47.5% -120)
- Under N/A (47.5% -120)
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 +130 (+115)
- Not Before 2026 +350 (+325)
- 2021 +400 (+500)
- 2022 +400 (+500)
- 2023 +750 (+700)
- 2024 +1400 (+1300)
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1200 (-1500)
- Yes +500 (+600)