Afghanistan Blowup Dooms Biden On Betting Boards

humiliated biden walking away from podium

We usually cover all things Joe Biden Exit – or Bexit™ – in our Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test addenda, but after the week he’s had, those lines deserve to be headlines.

If you haven’t been following the Biden-Afghanistan news, of course, there’s a lot to digest.

As we close in on the 20th anniversary of September 11, 2001, it seems that Biden (or his handlers) had the bright idea that the full withdrawal of troops from the sandbox should coincide with that date.

It was, after all, the most recent excuse to get boots on the ground in that hellhole to begin with.

But as with most worst-laid plans on the left, the whole thing blew up like so many roadside IEDs.

Instead of withdrawing the US civilian support staff first, Biden pulled the troops out first.

Instead of removing or disabling all military arms and equipment, Biden ordered all materiel left behind and left intact.

Instead of doing literally anything the sensible, by-the-book way, Biden sat idly by and created an unprecedented hostage crisis in Kabul and elsewhere. Then, he told all those abandoned US personnel to hunker down.

That works for Bunker Joe, but it doesn’t work too well for real people in the real world.

Here’s a recent Trump ad with some highlights:

Congratulations, America.

At any rate, now you’re all caught up.

For Vegas election bettors, of course, the drama unfolding is bittersweet at best.

While it’s providing exciting political props with things like Presidential impeachment odds and Presidential resignation odds – and while it all but assures that Biden (and even VP Kabula Harris) won’t be reelected in 2024 – it can be difficult to go all in on something so all-out awful.

But with political betting, that’s often the name of the game, and bettors – like politicians – should never let a crisis go to waste.

The Biden betting lines have all shifted due to the Afghanistan fiasco, and we’re including the relevant odds below (with their most recent prior odds in parentheses, where applicable).

As always, things are moving apace, so if you see a line you like – and a payout you like – you need to get your betting slips in ASAP.

2021 Joe Biden Odds

Via BetOnline Sportsbook

Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?

  • Yes -180 (-190)
  • No +140 (+145)

We’ve always been confused by the money on this line, but bettors are starting to wise up.

Two weeks ago, Biden was sitting at -225 on the affirmative and +160 on the negative. He slipped a bit at the start of last week, and he’s slipping even more this week.

It’s only a matter of time before this line flips altogether, so if you want a favorable payout on the obvious outcome, get in now.

Joe Biden Approval Rating On September 1, 2021

  • Over 47.5% -120
  • Under 47.5% -120

This line hasn’t changed since we last covered it, but back in late July when it was first posted, the O/U was 52.5%, and the odds were favoring the over at -135.

My, how the much less than mighty have fallen!

Year That Joe Biden Exits Office

  • 2025 +115 (-125)
  • Not Before 2026 +325 (+320)
  • 2021 +500 (+1050)
  • 2022 +500 (+700)
  • 2023 +700 (+700)
  • 2024 +1300 (+1300)

Just last week, 2021 was the second longest longshot on the boards.

It’s now closed the gap by 550 points and is among the most likely outcomes per bettors.

It’s also killed your opportunity to hedge meaningfully.

That said, 2025 has moved in a favorable way for bettors, and it’s telling that every single option posted is in the positive.

We still like putting equal money on 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, here. The payout won’t be what it was, but it still guarantees a profit.

However, if you want to go on this, it might finally be better to just wager on Biden’s chances to complete his first term straight-up, which is paying out at +140 on the “No.”

Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?

  • No -1500
  • Yes +600

This line was first posted last week as a result of the Afghanistan Taliban takeover, and it hasn’t moved since.

The calculus is simple: Bettors believe Biden likely won’t finish out his term, but they don’t think he’ll be sacrificed by the Democrat Party in the US Senate.

While it’s almost a sure thing Biden will be impeached once the GOP takes back the House in 2022, a slight Republican majority in the upper chamber isn’t enough.

Remember, to be convicted, it takes 66 Senators. Even if they recapture the Senate, the GOP isn’t going to get that kind of bi-partisan support.

Year That Kamala Harris Becomes President

  • Not Before 2026 -165 (-225)
  • 2021 +600 (+3300)
  • 2022 +600 (+1200)
  • 2025 +600 (+400)
  • 2023 +800 (+700)
  • 2024 +1400 (+1200)

These odds should be in line with the Biden “Year of Exit” odds above, as Harris becomes President if Biden resigns or is otherwise removed from office.

However, there’s a bit of a gap at each date.

That’s because it’s conceivable that should Biden actually be removed, the VP would go with him. Harris is arguably the least popular Vice President of all time, and whatever Biden might get bounced for, Harris could be bounced for the same thing.

That said, this is yugely unlikely in any contingency except Biden impeachment and conviction. Yes, Harris could resign or be impeached before Biden is, but neither outcome is reasonable.

We recommend skipping this one, as it simply adds too many variables for not much return compared to other lines.

2024 Presidential Election – Democratic Nominee

  • Joe Biden +110 
  • Kamala Harris +200   
  • Pete Buttigieg +1000 
  • Amy Klobuchar +1600  
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +2000  
  • Beto O’Rourke +2000  
  • Elisabeth Warren +2000    
  • Michelle Obama +2500 
  • Cory Booker +3300    
  • Bernie Sanders +4000 
  • + More

There hasn’t been any notable movement, here, with the exception that many months ago, Biden was the sole candidate pulling negative odds.

He’s no longer a heavy favorite to win the 2024 Democratic nomination, but he’s still the overall favorite.

Frankly, we don’t think the eventual DNC nominee is even on the list.

2024 Presidential Election – Winning Candidate

  • Joe Biden +300 
  • Kamala Harris +400   
  • Donald Trump +500    
  • Ron DeSantis +900    
  • Pete Buttigieg +1250 
  • Nikki Haley +1600    
  • Mike Pence +2500
  • Amy Klobuchar +3300  
  • Kristi Noem +3300    
  • Ted Cruz +3300
  • + More    

Again, no movement since last week. That’s a bit befuddling, but US politics has been nothing if not bizarre for the last several years.

History repeats until it doesn’t.