Back when Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden was rocketing past The Donald on the odds boards, we advised bettors to wait on putting their money on the challenger.
The prime-time debates, we reckoned, would be the reckoning, where payouts on Basement Joe would skyrocket.
But an interesting thing happened on the way to the debates: Joe’s lead has collapsed entirely. Trump is now tied with or leading the Democrat at every major Vegas election sportsbook:
2020 Presidential Election Odds
- Donald Trump -110
- Joe Biden -110
- Donald Trump -120
- Joe Biden +100 (EVEN)
- Donald Trump -140
- Joe Biden +110
The obvious reasons for the shift are the convention ratings (the RNC had 25 million more viewers than the DNC) and the Mostly Peaceful Protests™ that have been rocking swing states for seemingly months on end as the left continues to largely ignore the burned-out, looted businesses that the cameras – and the public – can’t.
Of course, even though you’re getting the best odds on Biden since he first passed Trump completely back in June, we still advise holding off on placing any wagers.
The 2020 Presidential debates, remember, still haven’t happened. And when they do, they’re likely to boost Trump further, making Biden payouts that much better.
Indeed, the current mainstream narrative is that Trump is primed to win yugely on November 3, only to have mailed-in votes counted in the weeks or months to follow that will, ultimately, give Biden the victory.
If you have faith in that – or that you’ll even be paid out in the midst of the ensuing nationwide unrest should that scenario come to pass – then Biden’s your man, and you should wager on him.
But again, not just yet. Wait for the debates.
If they happen, Biden’s odds will lengthen, earning you a better payout should he take the White House. If they don’t, Biden’s odds will lengthen, earning you a better payout should he take the White House.
As it stands today, however, Biden’s hefty national lead on the betting boards is slipping away. And so are his state electoral odds in the all-important battlegrounds.
Back in June, Biden was favored heavily in most of the swing states that matter. We did the math, showing you that – if bettors had it right – Biden would win the requisite electoral votes needed to claim victory and become the 46th President of the United States.
Here’s how the lines have moved since in the ensuing months, with today’s odds compared against those from June 12 (in parentheses):
2020 State Electoral Odds – Swing States
- Democrat -120 (-140)
- Republican -110 (+110)
In AZ, there has been a 40-point swing in Trump’s favor, though Biden is still the slight favorite to take the state. Trump took Arizona by 3.5% of the vote in 2016.
- Democrat -120 (-105)
- Republican -110 (-125)
Florida is interesting, as Biden has experienced a 30-point swing in his favor. Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016. Florida is considered to be the most important swing state for both candidates in 2020.
- Republican -220 (-185)
- Democrat +180 (+155)
Trump has experienced a 60-point swing in GA, a state he won by 5.1% of the vote in 2016. Could a Stacey Abrams VP pick have helped Biden here?
- Democrat -450 (-350)
- Republican +350 (+275)
Biden has gained 175 points on Trump in Maine since the first tally, and he seems firmly in control. Trump lost Maine by 2.9% of the vote in 2016.
- Democrat -200 (-190)
- Republican +160 (+160)
Trump has benefited from a 10-point swing in Michigan, a state he won by 0.3% of the vote in 2016, helping turn the election his way. Biden is losing ground in MI on the betting boards and at the polls (particularly among black voters), but the odds don’t seem to have fully caught up with the “boots on the ground” – or lack thereof – in the state.
- Democrat -180 (-300)
- Republican +150 (+240)
The President’s Minnesota boost is palpable, as the Trump 2020 campaign has seen a shift of 210 points in its favor. Trump lost MN by 1.5% of the vote in 2016, but as in MI, his campaign is polling in a virtual tie with Biden per many polls and is leading in others.
- Democrat -350 (-350)
- Republican +275 (+275)
Trump lost NV by 2.4% of the vote in 2016. Biden still seems comfortably in the lead, and the Nevada betting odds haven’t budged an iota since they were first posted.
- Democrat -240 (-230)
- Republican +190 (+190)
Trump lost NH by 0.3% of the vote in 2016, making the state firmly in play. However, the betting odds favor Biden by 10 more points than they did before all the rioting and protesting hit the streets.
- Republican -145 (-120)
- Democrat +115 (-110)
Trump won NC by 3.6% in 2016, and he looks primed to win the state again in 2020. The odds have experienced a 50-point shift in Trump’s favor there.
- Democrat -155 (-210)
- Republican +125 (+170)
Trump took PA by 0.7% of the vote in the 2016 election, securing his victory. While Biden was favored heavily early on, his odds have been slipping, and the Trump campaign has been the beneficiary of a 100-point swing so far.
- Democrat -140 (-140)
- Republican +110 (+110)
The odds in WI are flat, though the Kenosha riots should change that in one way or another soon enough. But which way will they go? The 2020 Presidential election could hinge on outcome. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.7% in 2016.
Overall, according to these odds, Trump has gained on Biden substantially in most swing states, earning a net 255-point boost at the Vegas political betting boards.
The caveat, though, is that Florida is the only state showing an actual switch, and it’s currently going left. That’s a big deal, of course, but with both candidates in the negative now as then, there’s not a clear favorite.
Nevertheless, we hope this has clarified some very muddy waters for all you election bettors out there.