Vegas Election Odds: Could A Trump Loss Lead To Divorce?

melania trump standing next to donald trump in front of an american flag

The biggest political news today, as expected, follows the Senate confirmation hearings for Donald Trump Supreme Court Justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett.

Of course, there are no political props on these hearings, despite the fact that they’d be easy enough to produce. Just for starters, we could wager on the over/under for how long the hearings will go, the yes/no on whether or not Barrett will be confirmed before the election, a yes/no on whether or not she’ll be confirmed at all, and etc.

Instead, all that’s up on the betting boards are the 2020 general election outcome, which party will win the popular vote, and a smattering of 2020 state electoral odds.

Pretty tame stuff.

Still, for those who are high on Trump’s reelection chances, now’s a great time to wager, as he’s a massive longshot at all three major election betting sites:

2020 Presidential Election Winner


  • Joe Biden -200
  • Donald Trump +170
  • Mike Pence +4000
  • Kamala Harris +5000
  • Hillary Clinton +10000


  • Joe Biden -225
  • Donald Trump +185
  • Mike Pence +3300
  • Kamala Harris +6600
  • Jo Jorgensen +50000


  • Joe Biden -165
  • Donald Trump +135
  • Kamala Harris +10000
  • Mike Pence +12500
  • Any Other Candidate +25000

It’s slightly disappointing that just three weeks out from the November 3 election, the sportsbooks are getting markedly less creative in the odds they have on offer.

Sure, they’ll post Trump vs. Biden debate odds for the final Presidential showdown, still tentatively scheduled for Thursday, October 22, at Belmont University. If it even happens.

But until then, don’t expect any spice on the boards.

Really, this has been the New Normal™ since Trump contracted coronavirus a few weeks ago. That led to an across-the-board dumping of most political odds, but it had a serious impact on props in particular – particularly the fun ones.

MyBookie – despite being the benchmark for the engaging 2020 political prop in general – wussed out bigly when they got rid of their Trump vs. Putin “Death Pool” odds. Someone made a phone call, and that death pool came off the boards. Worse than that, all death pools came off the boards.

For years, death pools have been a sort of entertainment calling card for MyBookie, a major differentiator between how vanilla some books are with their props and how outlandishly tongue-in-cheek MyBookie was willing to be.

Now, of course, the leader of the free world gets the sniffles, and all bets are off.

And that’s a shame. Some of those MyBookie death pools were darned funny.

You could go “Hey, hey, hey” on Bill Cosby croaking before Harvey Weinstein, you could bet on Magic Johnson or Charlie Sheen to give up the ghost first, you could put a top 10 on David Letterman to sign off before Jay Leno, and so on. These odds were harmlessly “controversial,” and they were always good for a buck or two in good humor.

No longer. The Cancel Culture™ got ’em.

That said, taking a cue from the political class when faced with a real or manufactured scandal, MyBookie has at least pivoted to offer the next best thing: Celebrity divorce odds.

While not as fun (celebrities get divorced all the time, after all), it’s probably a less problematic course for the sportsbook, particularly if they want to avoid a visit from the Secret Service.

To that end, these divorce odds feature President Trump and Co., and they’re the only new, amusing developments in a stale couple of weeks at the betting boards.

Here’s how they shape up:

Will Donald Trump and Melania Trump be divorced by 2021?

  • No -150
  • Yes +110

Will Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner be divorced by 2021?

  • No -700
  • Yes +300

Now, we’re not sure exactly what MyBookie means with “by 2021,” as the cutoff for these bets to vest could be just two months and change out. Divorces tend to take a lot longer than that.

On the other hand, given the rate of Hollywood flings – and the fact that most of the odds feature Hollywood celebs and not politicians – that timeline could be the deal. However, we’re interpreting these odds, instead, to mean “in 2021,” at least when it comes to the Trump lines listed above.

So with that in mind, here’s our take:


To both.

As for The Donald and the First Lady, it seems unlikely that he’d bail under any circumstances. She was with him before he was POTUS, so she’s probably going to stay with him post-POTUS, too – whenever that is.

There have been no real reports of friction in the family outside of those rags in the checkout aisle at your local grocery store, and whatever stressors are caused by a US presidency, they don’t ever seem to end in divorce after the fact.

As for Ivanka and Jared, there’s not been a power couple of this sort since Bill and Hillary Clinton, and we don’t anticipate either party bowing out of the empire of influence they’re in the middle of building.

Both of them are quite at home in the political sphere, and given the fact that Ivanka’s also on the boards as a possible Presidential winner in the 2024 election, a divorce now might linger well into campaign season three years hence.

Even if they hated each other’s guts, it’s just not happening.

Essentially, if you want to win a few bucks, these lines are surefire can’t-miss wagers.

But you’ll only win a few bucks, as there are betting limits in play.

For Trump-Melania divorce odds, the limit is two grand, so a $2000 bet will yield a $1333 payout. For normal folks not betting the farm(’s used mower), a $20 bet pays out 13 and change. It’s not nothing, but it’s not much.

Even more so – or, rather, less so – for the Ivanka-Jared divorce odds. At -700, and with the same $2000 betting limit, you’d make about $286. Again, for us little people, a $20 bet would get you $2.86. Not the worst financial move in the world, but it’s not a Trump-like investment, either.

All that notwithstanding, these are precisely the kinds of bets that a book needs to offer to catch the most casual gamblers, and we’d like to see more of these – especially when it comes to politics – from all the top online sportsbook operators.

But more than anything, we’d like to see MyBookie get their death pools back up and running.

These are tough times, folks. We could all use a chuckle.