This is getting ridiculous.
After President Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19 and it became the biggest story in the world for an entire weekend, the top Vegas election sportsbooks have completely ignored all the betting opportunities surrounding this news.
At Bovada, just like last Friday, all bets are off save for the candidate to win the 2024 Democratic Presidential nomination.
Similarly, BetOnline has come back online with a whopping two betting lines: the 2020 election winner and a popular vote prop.
Most disappointingly, MyBookie has wiped out its odds boards completely, with the exception of POTUS winner odds.
I don’t know about you, but when I yawn, I yawn in threes.
And get this: Those “Death Matchups” MyBookie is so famous for? The ones we reported on last week? Completely wiped off the boards.
Apparently, when a powerful politician gets a case of the sniffles, the odds just have to come down. Maybe the operator fears a Secret Service raid?
This one’s not even worth a yawn. More like a disgusted gag.
Ever since Trump caught COVID, Vegas election betting sites are no fun at all. If we wanted that, we’d watch the NFL. Or Game 2 of the 2020 NBA Finals.
Of course, there’s still something to be gained from the lines that are available, slim as the pickings are. Namely, Biden’s lead is about as big as it’s ever been.
At MyBookie, Biden’s 120-point lead has slightly shrunk to 100 points on the news of Trump’s improving condition, and BetOnline’s refreshed listings put Biden up by 130 points.
Here are the only existing political betting odds for 2020 as of this moment:
2020 Presidential Election Winner
- Joe Biden -180
- Donald Trump +150
- Mike Pence +3300
- Kamala Harris +6600
- Elizabeth Warren +15000
- Hillary Clinton +15000
- Michelle Obama +15000
- Joe Biden -170
- Donald Trump +130
- Mike Pence +1600
- Kamala Harris +5000
- AOC (Any Other Candidate) +12500
Biden’s big leads here are interesting.
For one, according to most polls, Trump’s numbers increased slightly after that first debate debacle. At worst, he lost no voters. Biden’s numbers stayed flat. At best, he gained no voters. The odds should be closer, not farther apart.
While we could chalk this up to Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, the odds for Biden actually spiked after Tuesday night’s debate, primarily on the strength that he didn’t actually keel over at the podium on live television.
Biden, it must be said, handled the fight against Trump better than most expected.
However, Trump’s fight with COVID seems to have pushed bettors further toward Biden, and that seems unsound.
We discussed the campaign trail advantages that a successful defeat of the coronavirus could offer Trump, but in short, it gives the candidate an appearance of strength. He’s old, he’s got comorbidities, and if he beats this thing without missing a beat – or missing more than a couple weeks on the campaign trail – his rallies will be more energetic than ever.
People will see a fighter out there on the front lines, and they’ll compare him to a guy that lids half the month and hides in his basement.
But we digress.
For bettors high on Trump, right now is a great time to place your wagers.
Once he’s out of Walter Reed and back on the trail, you can say happy trails to these long odds. If you want a great payout on Trump’s reelection odds, place your bets ASAP.
2020 Presidential Election Popular Vote Winner
- Joe Biden -700
- Donald Trump +500
While it seems like a foregone conclusion that Biden – or any Democrat (which is effectively what Biden is, running as a stand-in for an actual human being in what can only be described as a President-by-committee campaign) – will win the popular vote in any close Presidential election, there is a slim chance that Trump could surprise the world and actually galvanize enough voters to take the popular vote in addition to the electoral college.
Though unlikely to happen, recent news out of Pennsylvania indicates that under The Donald’s watch, new voter registration on the right is outpacing that on the left since 2016.
In PA alone, between December 2015 and December 2019, the GOP snagged 258,705 new voters, while the Democrats gained only 85,779 in that same time period.
Sure, the left has more total voters in the state by a wide margin, but it’s difficult to argue that the Democrats will be more galvanized than Trump’s base.
Of course, there’s that whole Vote By Mail™ thing to consider, too…
2024 Presidential Election Democratic Nominee
- AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) +300
- Joe Biden +300
- Kamala Harris +350
- Elizabeth Warren +800
- Bernie Sanders +1000
- Michelle Obama +1000
- Andrew Cuomo +1200
- Pete Buttigieg +1500
- Michael Bennet +2000
AOC is definitely winning the 2020 Democratic nomination.
But we’re not talking Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, here. We’re talking “Any Other Candidate.” Because none of the people listed will be even be running, with the possible exception of Pete Buttigieg.
Biden will have done his time one way or another, and if he’s still kicking, he’ll be reduced to an incoherent, babbling bag of bones. Bernie will be 107 years old in 2024, and Warren will get as much love from the DNC four years from now as Bernie has over the last eight or so.
Michelle Obama has no interest in running for office and is busy being Oprah 2.0, while Andrew Cuomo will not be able to outrun infecting thousands of nursing home residents with coronavirus for literally no reason whatsoever.
As for Michael Bennet, nobody knows who that is. He ran for President in 2020, and the highlight of his campaign was a pencil eraser he had for sale on his website. Oh wait, that was John Delaney. Same nothing.
There’s a chance Kamala Harris could get the nomination if the Biden-Harris ticket wins this year, but she might be running as a half-incumbent in a nation fractured beyond recognition, and an early primary exit seems more likely than an enthusiastic doubling down.
Hopefully, when Trump is out of the hospital and back at the White House – and when Trump vs. Biden 2 is finally scheduled – we’ll get all the odds back on the boards.
And then some.