Political Betting Recap: Vegas Odds Results For A Very Odd Debate

donald trump and joe biden yelling and pointing fingers at each other

If you managed to stay attentive and thoughtful during last night’s first Presidential debate, congratulations.

We didn’t.

Yes, we were there (remotely via YouTube, practicing social distancing) like millions of other Americans, but if not for our Debate Bingo card and the political betting boards, we’d have tuned this fiasco out after the first 10 minutes.

The moderator, Fox News’ Chris Wallace, was a charlatan, asking leading questions for Creepy Joe and asking loaded questions for Donald Trump.

Wallace didn’t hide his candidate preference or bias particularly well, often chastising Trump for interruptions while giving Biden a tacit pass, and even giggling along with Biden at times.

But bafflingly – truly bafflingly – Trump didn’t have the comebacks we expected, comebacks that would have been obvious high-key flexes for even the least seasoned freshman high school debater.

Case in point, when pressed (and perhaps pressed is too firm a word, here – “caressed” is better) on whether or not he condemns Antifa, Biden wouldn’t answer. Instead, he dismissed the question by saying that “Antifa is an idea, not an organization.”

Wallace let it go at that. Compelling stuff.

Turning to Trump, Wallace then asked if the President condemns “white supremacy,” which was a loaded false equivalency, especially given that the debate subject was about the so-called BLM/Antifa 1619 Riots.

Despite Trump being on record as “totally condemning” white supremacists, The Donald didn’t use the obvious rejoinder here:

“White supremacy is an idea, not an organization.”

Mic drop.

Didn’t happen.

But we digress.

When a moderator chooses sides from the start, it isn’t a debate, and when the debaters make the closed captioning guy’s job a freaking nightmare (and that guy’s a robot, mind you), they aren’t debaters.

Neither candidate was prepared, and both need to do a whole lot better a week from now if Trump vs. Biden 2 is going to be worth watching at all. Trump especially needs to adjust his style given the lack of any studio audience to cheer or jeer his every word.

Of course, our main interest re this circus sideshow is how all those MyBookie Presidential debate props turned out.

Watching the event, we tried to keep up with our bingo card, but the cross-talk made that difficult. Thank goodness for online debate transcripts, because now we can simply do a CTRL-F and see what hit and what didn’t.

So, how did the wagers turn out? And how did we fare?

Let’s take a look:

2020 First Presidential Debate Betting Results

Will Donald Trump say “QAnon”?

  • No -500
  • Yes +300

Winner: NO

We took the no at -400 before it lengthened to -500, and we advised you to do the same. Hopefully, you made a few bucks on this one.  

Will Donald Trump say “Sleepy Joe”?

  • No -140
  • Yes +100

Winner: NO

We took the “yes” here, and we lost bigly. Amazingly, Trump did not use a single Biden nickname during the entire course of the debate. Not having a live audience to rile up is likely the reason why. Hopefully, in Round 2, he’ll take the gloves off. Nobody likes or wants a “nice” Trump.

Will Donald Trump mention Joe Biden’s basement?

  • Yes -160
  • No +120

Winner: NO

We told you to bet “‘Yes’ all the way.” We apologize. When Biden mentioned Trump’s “bunker,” we expected the “basement” shot to follow. It did not. Sad!

How many times will Donald Trump say “China”?

  • Over 6.5 -500
  • Under 6.5 +300

Winner: OVER

Trump said “China” 10 total times during the debate, blowing past the over. Luckily, we took the over. Even more luckily, we took it at -120 and not -500.

Will Donald Trump say “anarchists”?

  • Yes -700
  • No +400

Winner: NO

Unbelievable missed opportunity. And an unbelievable bad beat for us. And probably for you, too.

How many times will Donald Trump say “Antifa”?

  • Under 4.5 -220
  • Over 4.5 +155

Winner: UNDER

Trump said “Antifa” three times during the debate. We stuck with the over, and we lost. Fascists!

How many times will Donald Trump say “Portland”?

  • Over 2.5 -280
  • Under 2.5 +190

Winner: OVER

Trump said “Portland” three times, hitting on the over. We won this one, but Portland lost.

How many times will Donald Trump say “Seattle”?

  • Under 1.5
  • Over 1.5

Winner: OVER

We advised bettors to stay away from this one, as we did ourselves. We weren’t sure he’d mention the city more than once. But Trump ended up saying “Seattle” twice, just winning the over for those of you who were smart and ignored us.

Will Donald Trump mention Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler by name?

  • No -800
  • Yes +425

Winner: NO

We didn’t wager on this one, but it was a tough call. The “yes” payout was tempting, but in the end, we saved a few bucks here.

Will Donald Trump say “law and order”?

  • Yes -1100
  • No +550

Winner: YES

We knew he would. Over and over and over again. And given the odds, so did everyone else. We got in on the affirmative when the line was first posted at -500, so our meager payout was only half as meager as what many bettors got. But something’s better than nothing, and your bankroll thanks you.

How many times will Donald Trump say “law and order”?

  • Over 3.5 -120
  • Under 3.5 -120

Winner: OVER

And over by a mile! Trump said the term seven total times. We figured this would be yuge theme for the event, and it was. But just like the debate, that wasn’t a very good TV show…

How many times will Donald Trump say “Obama”?

  • Under 3.5 -140
  • Over 3.5 +100

Winner: OVER

Trump said “Obama” 15 times, but 10 of those were as prefixes for the term “Obamacare.” Nevertheless, the five times Trump said “Obama” in isolation were enough for the over to hit. We were leaning under, but we didn’t wager on this one. Thank goodness.

How many times will Joe Biden say “Q” or “QAnon”?

  • Under 1.5 -500
  • Over 1.5 +300

Winner: UNDER

Neither candidate uttered either term. We took the over for Uncle Joe, but he stayed all quiet on the QAnon front. What a bunch of malarkey!

Will Joe Biden say “very fine people”?

  • No -160
  • Yes +120

Winner: YES

We took the yes here, on the grounds that Biden never ever doesn’t bring up this hoax. His cause wasn’t helped by the fact that Wallace fed him the lines to ensure he’d do just that.

Will Joe Biden call Donald Trump a “racist”?

  • No -250
  • Yes +170

Winner: YES

We were trepidatious to wager on this one, and we ended up staying away from the bet. Biden directly called Trump a “racist” only once, but described his policies as “racist” twice during the debate.

How many times will Joe Biden say “Antifa”?

  • Under 1.5 -500
  • Over 1.5 +300

Winner: UNDER

Biden could only bring himself to say “Antifa” once, and he defended the group as outlined above, calling the violent extremists an “idea” and not an “organization.” That’s how we bet here, because “Don’t alienate your base” is Politics 101. Biden knows this, if he doesn’t know much else.

Will Joe Biden say “fact check”?

  • Yes -160
  • No +120

Winner: NO

We told you to take the “yes” all day. We apologize.

Will Joe Biden call Trump a “liar”?

  • Yes -300
  • No +200

Winner: YES

This was one of the first bets to vest, hitting on the “yes” at the 14:25 mark per the debate transcript. We abstained from betting on this one. Ouch.  

Will Joe Biden mention Washington Post Associate Editor Bob Woodward?

  • No -140
  • Yes +100

Winner: NO

Biden said neither “Bob” nor “Woodward.” We bet on the namedrop, and we were losers. Just like Bob Woodward.

Will Joe Biden mention the number of US COVID-19 deaths?

  • Yes -1100
  • No +550

Winner: YES

At least, he tried to. He never got the number exactly right, but he came within 4000 or so according to the official CDC tally at the time of the debate, and only because that’s the number Wallace used to frame the question. We bet on this one when it was at -500, as it was a sure thing.

Will Joe Biden misquote the number US COVID-19 deaths by over 100k?

  • No -600
  • Yes +350

Winner: NO

Watching this thing live, we could have sworn Biden initially went way over the initial tally, but the transcript indicates that he didn’t. We were 50-50 on this one and ended up not wagering on the political prop bet. We’re glad we didn’t, because by showtime we were leaning toward the “yes” and that nice payout.

Will Joe Biden say “Russia”?

  • Yes -700
  • No +400

Winner: NO

We bet that he’d say it. We told you to bet the same way. But no? NO?! C’mon, man! Joe Biden is a real disappointment, folks. But that’s what politicians do: They just sit around and take your hard-earned money.

How many times will Joe Biden say “China”?

  • Over 2.5 -120
  • Under 2.5 -120

Winner: OVER

Biden said “China” three times in total, so the over just hit. We nailed this one, but it was closer than we thought it’d be.

Who will CNN say won the first debate?

  • Joe Biden -700
  • Donald Trump +400

Winner: BIDEN

Duh. Every article on CNN’s front page this morning is about how Trump lost the debate. We bet on this when the odds were Biden -1200, and they actually narrowed later. We should have waited, but who on earth could have foreseen the line shrinking by so much?

Who will Fox News say won the first debate?

  • Donald Trump -600
  • Joe Biden +350

Winner: PUSH?

We figured Fox News would call this one for Biden. It was our stone-cold lock for a nice, big payout. But the MSM outlet didn’t. However, you might be getting a push on this line regardless of how you bet. We’re really not sure how MyBookie Sportsbook will grade Fox’s official “Here’s Who Won” article, as columnist Doug Schoen’s missive says Trump won on “style” but that the debate was a “draw” on substance.

Well, that about wraps it up. We went 10-8, and we’re too tired to even do the math on whether or not we actually came out on top, money-wise.

Of course, there are still odds on whether or not Biden will participate in the second or third debates as scheduled.

Given that he didn’t completely fall apart on-stage, the candidate must be energized and should at least give Trump vs. Biden 2 a go.

The bettors seem to agree, as you can see. The odds prior to the first Presidential debate are included in parentheses to show the massive shift in the betting lines.  

Will Joe Biden participate in the second debate?

  • Yes -2500 (-350)
  • No +700 (+225)

Will Joe Biden participate in the third debate?

  • Yes -5000 (-300)
  • No +900 (+200)

Clearly, going off the odds here, bettors by and large believe Biden won the first debate.

The odds on whether or not Biden will accept a fourth debate moderated by Joe Rogan, however, are currently off the betting boards.

Sources: Rev, CNN, Fox News