After listening to Rush Limbaugh’s inadequate replacement blabbering about betting lines this weekend, it occurred to me that – unlike El Rushbo – these people don’t understand sports betting.
The narrative was that – for tomorrow’s gubernatorial election in Virginia – Terry McAuliffe was only leading Glenn Youngkin “at the sportsbooks” by something like -240 to +200 or thereabouts.
Then, the host explained how this meant GOP voters had closed the gap significantly or something.
It meant that the tide was turning red in the state.
Well, no. It actually means nothing of the sort.
Betting lines are indicators of public sentiment to a degree (and a more reliable degree than typical polling, as we’ve demonstrated a number of times), but they’re not all that useful to gauge the temperature of a particular state’s politics inside said state.
Legal Vegas election betting sites like BetOnline (which is almost certainly the exact “offshore gambling site” referenced by the radio host in question) take action from all or most US states and a host of other countries.
Whereas BetOnline’s odds might be useful to show how an entire country is trending politically, it’s far less useful to gauge how the residents of a specific state are going to vote in a local election.
In other words, the line on the Virginia governor race cited above is not a window into the enthusiasm of VA voters for one candidate or another, but a window into the candidate that bettors all across the USA and the world believe will win.
And naturally, since this weekend, those odds have changed a bit further still:
2021 Virginia Governor’s Race Betting Odds
- Republicans -170
- Democrats +130
It looks like – according to national and international bettors – that Glenn Youngkin is primed for victory.
That’s what the odds say, at any rate.
And, obviously, they’ve swung dramatically in favor of the GOP candidate over the weekend.
This is likely due in part to the debacle that was the latest Democrat Race Hoax of the Week™, which looked something like this (because black guys and women in khaki pants and baseball caps wearing sunglasses and carrying tiki torches in the rain is the universal symbol of “white supremacy” in Clownworld):
The narrative fell apart pretty quickly, and the memes have hit as hard and fast as the Alec Baldwin memorials flooding 4chan and Reddit over the last 10 days.
At any rate, let’s spend a moment breaking these odds down. Or, more specifically, let’s discuss whether or not you should bet on Youngkin vs. McAuliffe.
For context, here are the odds at Bovada Sportsbook for the same race:
- Republican Party -135
- Democrat Party +105
So, Bovada has the contest a bit tighter than BetOnline.
Here’s what the polling says as of this morning, courtesy of the left-
leaning bending-over-backwards FiveThirtyEight:
- Youngkin 47.5%
- McAuliffe 46.7%
Now, all that being said, Joe Biden “won” Virginia 54.11% to 44% in 2020.
We don’t know what kinds of voting machines the commonwealth uses, but they’re the same ones they’ve been using, and they definitely do the trick. With this being the case, we have a very hard time justifying any bet on Youngkin’s odds to win this election.
We think McAuliffe will probably take the state by 2-3 points.
Of course, one popular strategy with bettors is simply this: If you favor an outcome emotionally or intellectually – that is, if you have a dog in the fight – you should never bet for your otherwise preferred outcome (at least, when betting casual amounts of cash).
For example, let’s say you’re an actual American and not a piece of commie filth.
In that case, you probably really want Youngkin to win, because the alternative is morally repugnant and economically catastrophic.
You have $50 to put on the line.
Ask yourself: Right now, would you pay that $50 to have Youngkin win?
If yes, bet on McAuliffe whether you think McAuliffe is going to win or not. This is akin to a hedged bet, but you’re leveraging a decent payout if you lose against a worthy loss if you win.
In other words, you’re happy to take the hit because the real-world outcome is worth the wager whether the bet wins or loses.
Plus, if you bet on Youngkin and he loses, you’re now out your favored winner and $50. But if you go on McAuliffe and he wins, at least you’ve more than doubled your money.
Surely, you can buy some more ammo with the extra cash.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update – And Monthly Results!
Will Joe Biden finish his first term as President?
- Yes -175 (-175)
- No +135 (+135)
What year will Joe Biden exit office?
- 2025 -140 (-140)
- Not Before 2026 +375 (+375)
- 2022 +450 (+450)
- 2023 +550 (+700)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
- 2021 +2000 (+1500)
On this weekend’s competing rumors that Dementia Joe either shat himself at the Vatican or got stuck on an elevator after pressing all the buttons like a six-year-old child, the lines have budged a bit.
This is particularly interesting for 2023, which saw a 150-point swing since last week.
It seems that bettors think #PoopyPantsBiden will actually hang on long enough to finish out 2021, while they’re more or less steady on his 2022 odds.
However, as we’ve pointed out before, 2023 makes the most sense and is thus seeing the biggest surge toward even.
Will Joe Biden be impeached and removed from office?
- No -1250 (-1250)
- Yes +575 (+575)
Joe Biden Approval Rating By December 1, 2021
- Odds TBA
Closing out this line for the month of October, Biden’s approval rating over/under was 43% by November 1. Well, today is November 1, and it looks like His Fraudulency’s FiveThirtyEight polling data has him at 43.2%.
We told you to take the over, and unlike last month, this time we didn’t push!
Stay tuned for the new wager, which should hit the books any time now.