We hate to say we told you so.
We really hate to say we told you so.
Not always, of course. Usually it’s pretty nice to get a pat on the back, even if it’s just us doing the patting.
But this time, we wish we’d been wrong.
At any rate, after pulling -2000 odds across two of the three major Vegas election betting sites (MyBookie stayed out of this “race”), California Gov. Gavin Newsom avoided recall with roughly 64% of the “vote” on “Question 1.”
By hook or by crook, the delta – 27.8 points and counting – means this circus sideshow wasn’t even close.
And that means that Newsom is here to stay.
(In fact, by defeating the recall effort so resoundingly, the Democrat may have just gotten the booster shot he needs to launch himself up the 2024 Presidential election odds boards.)
As expected, Republican challenger Larry Elder, who was trending in second place at around +750 before the recall betting lines were pulled down Monday night, led all candidates for “Question 2”:
- Larry Elder (R) – 46.9%
- Kevin Paffrath (D) – 9.8%
- Kevin Faulconer (R) – 8.6%
Of course, those weren’t the only potential Newsom replacements vying for California’s governorship.
The CA recall election featured a total of 46 different candidates, and Caitlyn Jenner – perhaps the highest profile of them all – finished in 13th place with 1.1% of the vote.
But as it turns out, 13 wasn’t necessarily an unlucky number for political bettors.
At BetOnline, if you recall (heh!), Jenner had an O/U of 1.0%, so those of you who took the over, congratulations.
Jenner crossed the finish line by the skin of her facelift, and you made a pretty penny.
What more can you ask for?
Besides Republican leadership in California, that is.
*At the time of this writing, only 68% of CA precincts are reporting, but Newsom has an insurmountable lead. The election will be officially “official” within 30 days, but don’t expect any 2020-style midnight ballot drops to change the outcome.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -175 (-175)
- No +135 (+135)
Take the free money. Every time.
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 +110(+110)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +400 (+400)
- 2021 +550 (+550)
- 2023 +750 (+750)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
Biden is the WOAT, but ’23 is the GOAT. Bet on it.
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1200 (-1200)
- Yes +500 (+500)
This line has apparently stabilized, as there’s been no movement for over a month.
If you can afford to tie up a $3000 max wager for the next few years (Mother Nature depending), you’ll get a $250 payout.
That’s a guaranteed 8.3% return.
Joe Biden Approval Rating On October 1, 2021
- Over 46% -120 (45.5% -120)
- Under 46% -120 (45.5% -120)
In our very last post, we explained the rationale behind taking the over on this line when it was sitting at 45.5%.
With polling outlets cooking the books to boost His Fraudulency™, it was only a matter of time before bettors started to see the writing on the survey.
Today, the number’s crept up to 46%, and while there’s still two weeks to go until this wager vests, you no longer need to keep this thing close to the vest.
Take the over.