As you know, tomorrow is the Gavin Newsom recall election.
As you also know, there’s no way this clown actually gets recalled.
At the Vegas election betting sites covering the event, he’s “polling” stronger than ever:
2021 California Recall Election Odds
- Gavin Newsom -2000
- Larry Elder +750
- Caitlyn Jenner +5000
- Kevin Paffrath +5000
- Gavin Newsom -2000
- Larry Elder +725
- Kevin Paffrath +3000
- Kevin Faulconer +6500
- Caitlyn Jenner +10000
- John Cox +20000
- Kevin Kiley +25000
Via MyBookie Sportsbook
- No Action
A week ago, Newsom was at -1000.
A week before that, he was at -800.
A week before that, he was at -600.
If you think hope springs eternal, take Larry Elder at +750. If you’re like everyone else, bet the maximum on Newsom and take the tiny payout.
Big ups to MyBookie for not posting this line. We can’t imagine any book’s going to clear more than a rounding error here.
With that out of the way, the biggest development over the last several weeks actually just happened.
CNN – one of the more prominent “non-biased” polling entities out there – made an interesting “adjustment” to their Joe Biden approval ratings methodology.
For the first time in history, a major outlet scrapped the weekly/twice-weekly rolling poll concept in favor of a monthly aggregate. Or, in CNN’s case, a five-week aggregate.
While he’s not busy promoting experimental drug injections for healthy Americans, Breitbart’s John Nolte explains:
“How fake and juiced and unreliable is CNNLOL’s new polling methodology? Well, CNNLOL just released a “poll” that claims His Fraudulency Joe Biden enjoys a 52 percent approval rating.
No other pollster in the world is even close to that. But CNNLOL is!
Boy, they sure poured on the juice until they got the desired result — that 52 percent! And to justify all that juicy-juice, CNNLOL claims that their new methodology is even more accurate than the old.”
CNN did this by insisting that “accurate” polling requires a longer “field period.”
Specifically, it requires a “field period” that grabs enough data from before a scandal such that said scandal doesn’t affect the average too negatively.
Remember when they did the same thing for Trump? Not that he needed the help, of course.
Anyway, Nolte continues:
“So what exactly did CNNLOL do to get Biden to 52 percent?
You’re gonna love this…
The polling responses are from August 3 to September 7. …
In other words, to get Slow Joe to 52 percent, these crooked liars reached all the wwwwaaaaaayyyyyyy back to August 3… Yep, they had to go all the wwwwaaaaaayyyyyy back five weeks to get Joe over the top… Yep, CNNLOL seriously included three weeks’ worth of responses prior to Biden’s Afghanistan fiasco.”
Why is this relevant? I mean, we already knew how shameless CNN is, how deep inside the pockets of the DNC the establishment media cable news network’s actually been these many years.
The development, then, isn’t surprising in the least.
But it is relevant, at least for online political bettors looking to cash in on a savvy wager.
To demonstrate this, we’ll include the gist down below in our trademarked Biden mental health tracker, courtesy – as ever – of BetOnline:
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -175 (-175)
- No +135 (+135)
At least, not until some sliver of actual reality returns to this twisted nightmare world.
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 +110(+130)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +400 (+350)
- 2021 +550 (+400)
- 2023 +750 (+750)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
Equal money on 2023 and 2024.
Remember, that gives VP Kamala Harris 9-10 years in office if the DNC so wishes.
…And if she can beat The Donald in 2024.
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1200 (-1200)
- Yes +500 (+500)
The answer to this is, of course, is “no.” Obviously.
However, for most bettors, the payout is so miniscule at -1200 that it makes little sense to bother.
Yes, if you’re betting with Bitcoin, every little win helps boost your holdings as Bitcoin prices go up, so that’s one point in favor of taking the plunge.
Another is this: BetOnline’s max bet on this line is $3000.
That pays out $250 if Unimpeachable Joe isn’t impeached and removed from office.
But while that’s a guaranteed outcome, the other angle is this:
Your money will be tied up for an untold amount of time. Probably until February 2023, but possibly until January 2025.
All gains are gains, but your cash is better spent on odds that vest sooner.
You could easily invest $3000 in just about anything and see a bigger return than $250 in 1-3 years.
Really, you should only do this if you intend to bet in BTC and were going to hodl that BTC for the duration anyway.
Sometimes, it’s the best conclusion is to simply forego a foregone conclusion.
Joe Biden Approval Rating On October 1, 2021
- Over 45.5% -120 (45.5% -120)
- Under 45.5% -120 (45.5% -120)
Ah, yes, the line you’ve been waiting for!
For some background, before Inoperation Afghanistan™, Biden’s combined approval rating – via FiveThirtyEight’s leftist aggregator model – was hovering around 50-51% every three or four days.
This line, when first posted, was offered at an O/U of 52.5%.
Since then, Biden’s approval ratings – fueled by the most asinine foreign policy blunder since Vietnam – have tanked.
The low 40s were in play, and at one point, Dementia Joe even hit 39%.
Here’s your edge:
Even on news of the above – that CNN was now going with a five-week polling cycle (which will probably be reduced back to the standard week or half-week after the Afghanistan withdrawal is more than five weeks past) – FiveThirtyEight is still including its numbers in their average.
This, in turn, is relevant because that’s the average on which BetOnline is basing the line above.
Right now, as you can see, the odds remain the same as they were before CNN pulled this absurd, partisan stunt. That means you’ve got an edge that BetOnline hasn’t yet picked up on.
With this CNN poll shouldering the weight, Biden’s current approval rating – today – is sitting at 46%.
The only caveat is this: The wager won’t be final until October 1, and that’ll be far enough out from the Retreat Heard Round The World™ that CNN will likely go back to its regularly scheduled programming.
Nevertheless, take the over.
Especially if other left-leaning polling firms employ the same nonsense.