How Donald Trump’s odds flipped to favor impeachment

donald trump odds favor impeachment

Could Donald Trump actually become the third US President ever to be impeached?

As the impeachment inquiry against Trump continues on, originally launched due to a whistleblower’s complaint regarding Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the odds remain against him.

According to Bovada, with -135 odds, Trump’s odds favor his impeachment at 57.45%. Proving how much the odds can fluctuate, just a couple of months ago Bovada listed the chances of the House beginning the impeachment process with “No” at -5000, or a 98.04% chance that an inquiry wouldn’t be launched before December 31.

Will Trump be impeached during his first term?


  • Yes -135
  • No +105

To understand why Trump’s odds now favor impeachment, one must first understand the events that have taken place. The following is a breakdown of the impeachment timeline.

  • August 12: A whistleblower within the White House files a complaint with the intelligence inspector general alleging that Trump threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine on July 25 unless the eastern European country investigated Joe and Hunter Biden.
  • September 9: An investigation is launched to investigate any pressure Trump may have applied to Ukraine.
  • September 10: After the complaint is not given to Congress within the allotted time, Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff demands it be turned over.
  • September 13: Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire is subpoenaed by Schiff.
  • September 19: Multiple news outlets reveal that the whistleblower’s complaint is related to the Trump-Zelensky phone call in July.
  • September 22: Trump admits that he discussed the Bidens with Zelesnky, but denies quid pro quo allegations.
  • September 24: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi launches a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump.
  • September 25: Trump releases the Zelensky phone call transcript.
  • September 26: The whistleblower’s complaint is released and Maguire gives his testimony.
  • October 3: Trump publically asks China to also investigate the Bidens. After this, Trump’s odds flip to favor his impeachment.
  • October 8: The Department of the State bars US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland from testifying before Congress.

Despite the State Department not allowing Sondland to testify, the Ambassador has since defied their decree and will now appear later this week in front of three House committees.

This week will also feature testimonies from Russia adviser Fiona Hill, Deputy Assistant Secretary George Kent, and Counselor Ulrich Brechbuhl, assuming the Trump administration will clear them to do so.

Despite the ongoing impeachment inquiry, Trump is still favored to win the 2020 Presidential Election. Trump’s +125 odds of reelection next year beat out Elizabeth Warren (+225) and Joe Biden (+700).

Since there is a chance that Trump is removed from office, it would be wise to keep an eye out for the individual Republican betting odds. And, as the Democrats are currently battling for their party’s nomination, it also pays to check on the Democratic chances heading into 2020.

2020 Presidential Election odds


  • Donald Trump +125
  • Elizabeth Warren +225
  • Joe Biden +700
  • Andrew Yang +1800
  • Pete Buttigieg +1800
  • Bernie Sanders +2000
  • Kamala Harris +4000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +7500
  • Beto O’Rourke +10000
  • Cory Booker +10000
  • Julian Castro +10000
  • Amy Klobuchar +12500
  • Marianne Williamson +20000
  • Tom Steyer +20000