Vegas Odds: The Elephant In The Room Sings The Swing State Blues

nervous donald trump wiping sweat from his brow

Last night, in lieu of a second debate, both President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden held individual “town halls.” Whatever those are.

The point is, there were plenty of betting odds on them.

The bigger point is, we didn’t bet on any of them, because we weren’t going to subject ourselves to two separate 60-90-minute redundant nonsense-fests airing concurrently and requiring judicious use of the TiVo we haven’t owned in 15 years.

Of course, if you bet on the color of Trump’s tie and whether he’d “disavow white supremacy” for the millionth time – or on Creepy Joe’s incoherent stammering and whether or not he’d address that New York Post story about the crackhead kid he loves so much – we hope you won a nice chunk of change.

We really do. That’s what it’s all about.

But with the election now just over two weeks out, the race is coming down to the wire.

In terms of favorable news coverage and the reporting from media elites, it seems like Biden – akin to Hillary in 2016 – is primed to wipe the floor with the Bad Orange Man. That’s the power of citrus!

And bettors, for their part, seem to agree.

However, in terms of enthusiasm, rally turnout, and alleged “internal polling,” the Trump 2020 campaign – and Trump himself – are exuding confidence that while not entirely in the bag, Trump reelection is nearly all wrapped up.

Trump campaign senior adviser Corey Lewandowski stated in a recent conference call with reporters that the likelihood of Trump earning a second term is just shy of a foregone conclusion:

“[It is] becoming mathematically impossible for Joe Biden to win this campaign.”


But maybe not.

And regardless, this one’s going to be close.

Bettors clearly view Biden as the favorite as the media continues its years-long onslaught of the President, albeit “boots on the ground” tell a different story, with rally sizes and local demonstrations seeming to skew bigly – even yugely – to the right.

Trump is getting truck caravans, powerboat regattas, and packed crowds everywhere he goes. He’s visiting two, sometimes three states a day. After defeating the coronavirus.

Biden, meanwhile, is still calling daily “lids” at this late stage of the campaign, and he can’t attract more than 10 people to any given campaign event. The left cites COVID-19 protocols in limiting participation, but that might be a convenient smokescreen if nobody really cares to show up in the first place.

Regardless, as ever, this election will come down to the 2020 swing states.

Those, per most analysts, include the following, and we’re showing you how the odds have changed since we last reported on them way back on September 2. Those previous odds are in parentheses.

2020 Swing State Electoral Odds


  • Democrat -165 (-120)
  • Republican +125 (-110)


  • Democrat -135 (-120)
  • Republican +105 (-110)


  • Republican -170 (-220)
  • Democrat +130 (+180)


  • Democrat -1200 (-450)
  • Republican +600 (+350)


  • Democrat -370 (-200)
  • Republican +260 (+160)


  • Democrat -400 (-180)
  • Republican +275 (+150)


  • Democrat -350 (no change)
  • Republican +245 (+275)

New Hampshire

  • Democrat -450 (-240)
  • Republican +300 (+190)

North Carolina

  • Democrat -130 (+115)
  • Republican +100 (-145)


  • Democrat -275 (-155)
  • Republican +200 (+125)


  • Democrat -300 (-140)
  • Republican +200 (+110)

As you can see, in every crucial swing state, Biden has increased his lead on the betting boards.

In North Carolina, Biden has actually flipped the state per the bettors, now leading by 30 points there. In only one state – Nevada – has Biden failed to gain on Trump, hovering at -350 while Trump’s reelection odds have slightly closed the gap, going from +275 to +245.

According to the sportsbooks, this sure looks like a Biden wipeout.

Of course, there is legitimate polling in several states – like Michigan – were Trump is showing a small lead. That doesn’t seem to have affected the betting lines, but it indicates that politics bettors have moved from using polls to inform their bets to using MSM news coverage.

And that’s a mistake.

Honestly, this is going to be a close election. There’s little doubt about that.

Further, it’s going to be a contested election, likely to be decided in the courts in several states. The results may not be known for weeks or even months after the fact.

Neither candidate may clearly win, and Nancy Pelosi could very well be sworn in as President on January 20, 2021.

Alternatively, state congresses could throw out any lack of a clear outcome and vote directly for the President themselves.

There are so many possibilities, but none of them seems to point to a clear winner on the night of November 3 or into the wee hours of November 4.

Overall, if you think Trump’s going to win this thing, bet on him now. His odds have dropped shockingly far into the positive, and the payouts may not get any bigger between now and Election Day.

Similarly, if you’re ridin’ with Biden, it might not hurt to wait a little longer before throwing your money down.

There are a mere 17 days left.

But, on the other hand, there are a whopping 17 days left.

Anything can happen, and we’re still waiting for that October Surprise.

Source: McClatchy DC, Breitbart