As we’ve long expected (and often touted!), the political betting hasn’t slowed down at all at the top Vegas election betting sites.
That’s because the Trump Effect™ reaches far and wide, and even as The Donald is no longer in office, top sportsbooks understand that the once-minor market is here to stay.
Between 45’s blistering off-the-cuff pressers and the spotlight he shines on the corruption and scandal eating away at the heart of American politics, everything is finally in play.
For patriots and sports bettors alike, that’s a good thing.
Recently, BetOnline – which continues to set the standard for online political props and other action – has been more focused on US Senate election odds, as a wave of wagers was just added to the big board.
These include the following, and we’ll attach our touts and asides as usual.
2022 Senate Election Odds
Florida Senate Election 2022
- Republicans -350
- Democrats +225
The 2022 Florida Senate race is for Senator Marco Rubio’s seat. There are 25 candidates who have entered the fray, including seven from the GOP and 11 from the Democrat side.
The most notable Rubio challenger is Democrat Val Demings, who was reportedly on the shortlist for Joe Biden’s VP nomination.
The recent hullabaloo in Cuba about “democracy” and whatnot – coupled with the left’s silence on the matter – should only help Rubio in the Sunshine State.
The bettors have it right here, and we expect his odds to pay out even less going forward.
Bet on Rubio’s chances now.
Georgia Senate Election 2022
- Democrats -150
- Republicans +110
Democrat Raphael Warnock is up for reelection after winning his seat in a special election last year. Warnock defeated the GOP’s Kelly Loeffler, likely through the aid of compromised voting machines.
Recent local election integrity laws should prevent such abuses for the 2022 Georgia Senate race (to some degree), and Warnock could be a one-third-termer.
Loeffler and NFL legend Herschel Walker have both discussed the possibility of running, but neither has committed yet.
Thanks to the new voting law, we like the GOP here, but the payout could be better. We’re going to wait a bit. There’s plenty of time, after all.
Nevada Senate Election 2022
- Democrats -200
- Republicans +150
Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection in the 2022 Nevada Senate race, and her biggest challenger is also a Democrat (BLM activist Allen Reinhart).
On the GOP side, the only two candidates to declare to date are a no-name Army vet and a beauty queen.
Give us a break, and give us the Dems at -200.
New Hampshire Senate Election 2022
- Democrats -140
- Republicans +100
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) parlayed her two terms as NH governor into a US Senate seat, which means she has considerable political experience in the state.
That gives her an edge against the GOP’s Donald C. Bolduc, who was a former US Army Special Forces Brigadier General.
The odds could change if current governor Chris Sununu (R) enters the 2022 New Hampshire Senate race. We’re going to wait on the latter before we bet on this line.
North Carolina Senate Election 2022
- Republicans -225
- Democrats +160
Republican Richard Burr is retiring after serving three terms in the US Senate, leaving the door open for a more contested election (given the 85-plus percent rate at which Senate incumbents win reelection). Thus, the 2022 North Carolina Senate race is wide open.
The GOP is favored to prevail, which is the correct call, though we don’t see the line getting too much better on that side of things.
Five Republicans and five Democrats have announced their candidacies, but we’ve never heard of any of them. Whichever one Trump endorses will win.
Ohio Senate Election 2022
- Republicans -800
- Democrats +425
In the 2022 Ohio Senate race, GOP incumbent Sen. Rob Portman is wimping out due to “partisan gridlock,” so OH is going to elect a better Republican to take his place.
Bad payout, but good.
Wisconsin Senate Election 2022
- Republicans -135
- Democrats -105
Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson has had political odds up for longer than any other Senator up for reelection. That’s because he has yet to commit to any reelection campaign.
So far, nine Democrats have declared for the 2022 Wisconsin Senate race, but no Republicans have stepped in just yet.
We’d advise waiting for the better half to make an announcement.
Arizona Senate Election 2022
- Democrats -220
- Republicans +155
Democratic Senator and virulent anti-rights advocate Mark Kelly – who won the AZ special election in 2020, has declared his candidacy for the 2022 Arizona Senate race.
On the GOP side, Martha McSally, whom Kelly “beat” for the seat, hasn’t made any announcements of running again, but a handful of Republicans have stepped in.
The highest profile of these is Mark Brnovich, current Arizona Attorney General.
We hate Kelly and his Gunsense™ nonsense, but we like Kelly for the win, here. Unless, of course, AZ tightens up its election security in time for November.
Pennsylvania Senate Election 2022
- Democrats -200
- Republicans +150
Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is not running again in PA, which means that the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race will be awash with names on all sides.
15 candidates – nine Democrats and six Republicans – have announced their bids, but we’ve never heard of any of them.
The DNC views the PA seat as the most likely to flip, but we’re not so sure.
If the PA GOP gets its election integrity bill passed, the state should turn red in a hurry. Pennsylvania was one of the ground zeroes for fraud in the 2020 general, remember.
2022 US Senate Election – Party Majority Winner
- Democrats -130
- Republicans -110
Right now, the US Senate odds favor the Democrats, despite the upper chamber being evenly split at 50-50.
The left has a tie-breaker in Kamala Harris (or whomever her potential VP will be once Old Joe gives up), so the GOP can’t just keep its seats.
Republicans have to flip at least one seat, at which point the left will naturally endeavor to explain how the filibuster is not only not a vestige of white supremacy and racism, but is, in fact, a critical safeguard against the tyranny of the majority.
It should be interesting.
We like the GOP here, but it’s really up to whether or not voter ID will be a thing in the inevitable wake of unlawfully expanded voting due to the COVID Omega variant (or whichever version of WuFlu is particularly brandable in 2022).
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -200 (-225)
- No +150 (+160)
Finally, these lines are starting to move in a sensible direction. Last week, “Yes” was sitting at -250, while “No” was trending at +160. A week before that, “Yes” was at -225, and “No” was at +170.
Over the last 15 days or so, there’s been a 70-point swing in favor of Creepy Basement Joe’s early return to his creepy basement, though we still think there’s good value here.
That positive number is going to be a big negative in no time, so get in while the getting’s good.
Additionally, we’ve decided to update this ongoing tracker with a few more Biden odds, as these have been available for several weeks now. As always, previous odds are in parentheses.
Joe Biden Approval Rating On September 1, 2021
- Over 52½% -135 (-135)
- Under 52½% -105 (-105)
Bettors can’t be tricked, and they know which way the wind blows. Given that BetOnline is using 538’s lefty metrics to gauge Biden’s approval ratings, you can more or less bank on the tally being politically correct.
There’s an important lesson here, as Breitbart – using polls that are considerably less sinister in nature – reported just today that Biden’s approval was trending at an all-time low: 46% approve, 52% disapprove.
Of course, that’s coming from Rasmussen, and despite being the most accurate pollster over the last decade, such numbers will be drowned out on aggregate by the Democrat-friendly stable over at 538.
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 -170 (-120)
- Not Before 2026 +285 (+275)
- 2023 +700 (+500)
- 2022 +1200 (+1200)
- 2024 +1200 (+800)
- 2021 +2800 (+3300)
These lines are still the best we’ve seen for demonstrating hedging to savvy bettors, as you can put equal money on 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, while still coming out well ahead if any of those dates hit.
This is the most attractive political prop bet on any board to date.
It’s also worth noting that Biden is a heavy favorite to be a one-term President. (Or, if you’re more reality-inclined, a zero-term President.)