Betting On Politics: A Few Sure Things In An Uncertain World

donald trump pointing at you

The headline to this article might seem to make it more philosophical in nature than it actually is.

We apologize in advance.

That said, the topic – drawn out to its logical conclusion – would arrive at a concise final takeaway:

In betting and politics, there are no sure things.

That said – and all wonkery aside – the Vegas election odds boards are jam-packed with juicy lines this week, as well as a host of typical pre-cycle fare.

You’ve got indictment odds, gubernatorial odds, Senate odds, House odds, etc., as well as a bunch of international action on politicos nobody ‘round these parts has ever even heard of.

Of course, most top political betting sites have an international customer base, so at least some folks will find relevancy in odds for which weird party or pol wins the second-Sunday biennial parliamentary election for Bellend-on-Sea assistant chimney sweep and junior sheep-shearer.

Needless to say, we’ll be focusing on various US fare, here.

Specifically, we’re going to focus on what appear to be sure things at BetOnline Sportsbook (despite the fact that, finally, Bovada appears to be populating its own election odds section with actual items of interest).

These are the lines we’ve seen this week that scream “easy money” as inflation rockets skyward like the earth’s richest global warming alarmists.

Miscellaneous 2021 Political Odds – Sure Things (Maybe)

Via BetOnline Sportsbook

Note: We’ve left out sure things that have lines of more than -1000, as the returns on such wagers aren’t big enough for most players to win significant profits. While betting limits are generally high at BetOnline, you’d have to risk an awful lot to get a measly few bucks on those lines.

Pro-Tip: Gavin Newsom isn’t getting recalled (-1500), Joe Biden isn’t getting impeached (-5000), Caitlyn Bruce-Jenner isn’t winning the CA governorship (-2250), Donald Trump isn’t going to become the next House Speaker (-5000), and etc.

Will Donald Trump be indicted in 2021?

  • No -600   
  • Yes +350

Of course not.

There’s not a chance in the world that the left is fool enough to turn President Donald Trump into an even bigger martyr for MAGA than he already is.

They also probably don’t want to spark off a global war, either.

Well, we’re not quite so sure about that second thing, actually.

Winning Party Of 2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Election

  • Democrats -200 
  • Republicans +150

Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), hated by all, has not yet declared her intent to seek reelection.

Whether she does or not, if the voting machine “issue” is shored up in any meaningful way, neither she nor any other Democrat is likely to win after the governor’s eternal lockdowns destroyed her state’s economic outlook for the next decade.

Who will control the House in 2022?

  • Republicans -220
  • Democrats +155

Republicans flipped 15 seats in 2020 despite Trump “losing” the election, narrowing the Democratic majority from 35 seats to just nine.

With all 435 seats up for grabs in the 2022 Midterm elections, it seems unlikely the left will be able to stop the bleeding and keep the GOP from taking the lower chamber.

Who will control the Senate in 2022?

  • Democrats -130 
  • Republicans -110

Take the GOP here, too.

Also, the payout’s a little better, which is a nice bonus.

Remember, the upper chamber is split 50-50, which means the GOP needs to pick up a single seat.

While that’s also true for the left, the party’s on the ropes, just like your pocketbook (given the prices of food, gas, and all those extended unemployment bennies you’re paying for).

To Run for US President 2024

  • Donald Trump -300    
  • Ivanka Trump +400    
  • Tucker Carlson +600  
  • Donald Trump Jr. +1200    
  • Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +1600 
  • + More

OFC he will.


Joe Biden Approval Rating On September 1, 2021

  • Over 52½ percent -135
  • Under 52½ percent -105

538 is a DNC shill factory that loads its polls with leftist nonsense.

Today, at the time of this writing, 538 has Biden sitting pretty with a healthy 52.1% approval rating. That’s about as legit as the 2020 election.

As such, it seems likely Biden can add a few tenths of a percent to his current rating over the next month and change. The only real wild card is the guy’s health.

Of all the picks we’re touting here, we’re least sure about this one.

Year That Kamala Harris Becomes President

  • Not Before 2026 -225 
  • 2025 +400 
  • 2023 +700 
  • 2022 +1200
  • 2024 +1200
  • 2021 +3300

We wrote earlier how this line is the best example of hedging your bets, and it’s still absolutely true.

Here, you can put equal money on 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 and guarantee a healthy return if Biden checks out before 2025.

If you remove 2021 and 2022 from the equation on the theory that the Democrats won’t want to vault Harris into the Oval Office before the 2022 Midterms, your profit potential on 2023 and 2024 – taken together – is even better.

This, of course, assumes that 2025 is an unrealistic expectation for Creepy Uncle Basement Dementia Joe.

Year That Joe Biden Exits Office

  • 2025 -120 
  • Not Before 2026 +275 
  • 2023 +500 
  • 2024 +800 
  • 2022 +1200
  • 2021 +3300

You’d think this series of odds would have the same figures as the above since it’s basically asking the same question.

However, the hedging potential here isn’t quite as attractive.

Based on the trending favorite, bettors don’t think Biden will win reelection in 2024, but that’s the only real takeaway.

If you want to go on this line, go on the preceding line instead.

2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update

Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?

  • Yes -225 (-250)
  • No +160 (+170)

Biden’s odds are falling a bit here, but we’ve still seen them lower. It continues to baffle us that most bettors actually believe this demented old doddering idiot is going to last through January 20, 2025.