One of the most important tactics in any sports bettor’s arsenal is the ability to find guaranteed – or nearly guaranteed – value.
Whether you call it hedging your bets, leveraging your bets, or just being shrewd in general, you can often find lines that effectively posit the same outcome(s) but with drastically different payouts.
This isn’t 100% effective, of course, because sportsbooks aren’t stupid.
But if you scrutinize the odds boards with just a little more vigor than, say, the government scrutinizes ballots, you can come away with as close to a “sure thing” as possible.
Today, BetOnline has one particularly interesting election prop bet that – taken by itself – isn’t all that special.
However, when you cross reference it with another specific line on the election betting boards, you can see which way the wind is blowing – if not for the politburo, than at least for your pocketbook.
Here’s the latter line to set the table:
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -250 (-200)
- No +170 (+150)
We don’t usually start with this one, but it’s important for reference.
Here, Dementia Joe is actually favored to physically finish out his first term as “President.”
That seems like a pretty big ask by itself, but bettors appear to be bullish on the idea that he’s going to pull it out.
For context, check out these highlights from the alleged Commander in Chief’s most recent public appearances to remind you that three more years is an awfully long time:
And here are some of Joe Biden’s greatest hits to top it all off:
Note: If any of the above tweets or videos are deleted by the state’s censors, they basically feature Biden mumbling various non sequiturs and being generally unaware of his surroundings or current events.
Now, with that out of the way, here’s the more intriguing line:
What year will Kamala Harris become US President?
- 2025 +375
- 2023 +800
- 2024 +1200
- 2022 +1400
- 2021 +2500
Since this whole Biden-Harris fiasco got underway, whenever we’ve seen this line (and BetOnline posts it every couple of months), we’ve always liked the value on 2022.
Of course, with the Midterm elections looming – and the 2022 Midterm odds strongly favoring a flip of the House back to the GOP – that might be too soon for the left to go all in and file all out of their obvious Trojan Horse.
That makes 2023 much more likely.
However, with Biden’s health being what it is, you know what they say about “best laid plans.”
Essentially, these odds are in line with the Biden odds above, as each carries a substantial payout. Remember, he’s favored to survive.
But with Father Time being the ultimate – and ultimately unpredictable – variable, this is a good opportunity to find some value by picking several different options, instead.
So, if you think Biden won’t finish his term and want to effectively guarantee a payout, you have two choices.
First, and most directly, you can take the first wager discussed at +170. If you bet $40 on that, you’ll win $68.
The second choice is more attractive, however, because if you can pick the exact year of Biden’s replacement, you’ll get substantially more money.
But here’s the really shrewd bit: If you want to hedge that bet and put $10 each on 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, you’ll risk $40 and come away with the following profit potential, depending on the date that hits:
- 2021: $210
- 2022: $100
- 2023: $40
- 2024: $80
In essence, the minimum win here is $40 for the same effective outcome as the initial premise above – that Biden won’t finish out his first term.
While betting your $40 on that line would pay out $68 instead of $40, that’s the maximum it can pay out.
If you take a bit less “guaranteed” money, you open the door to winning considerably more cash betting these dates independently of one another.
To recap: You can bet $40 to earn $68, or you can bet $40 to earn either $40, $80, $100, or $210.
The choice is as obvious as Trump’s 2020 triumph.
And that’s the kind of leverage every bettor should look for.