When the maybe-fabricated, maybe-not Matt Gaetz scandal first erupted, Vegas election betting sites were slow to the punch, withholding the obvious political odds we all knew were coming.
Now, those Matt Gaetz odds are finally on the betting boards at BetOnline AG.
For those not following the drama – and this is big drama – Gaetz has been accused by the typical “anonymous sources” of buying airplane tickets for – and sex from! – a 17-year-old girl.
This story broke a day after news leaked that Gaetz was considering leaving his post as a US House Representative from Florida’s 4th District for a lucrative private media job at conservative outlet Newsmax.
However, Gaetz immediately countered the claim with one of his own, saying that he was being extorted in a crazy-sounding made-for-Hollywood black ops scheme.
According to Gaetz, a former US DOJ official contacted his father, Don Gaetz, with promises to make nebulous “future legal problems” “go away” in exchange for $25 million to fund an unauthorized paramilitary extraction of Robert Levinson, an American hostage in Iran who is presumed to be dead.
Admittedly, the claim was comically convoluted. Skepticism was warranted.
But since then, the claims have been backed up with documentation proving their veracity. In other words, the only thing anyone knows with certainty in this bizarre case is that Gaetz was in actual fact being blackmailed.
However, the narrative continues apace that Gaetz is an out-of-control, orgy-loving predator who pays for intimate acts with underage prostitutes and actively participates in the “sex trafficking” of minors.
With something this juicy – and with this many twists and turns – it’s no surprise that we’re finally seeing some action on the books.
2021 Matt Gaetz Odds
Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected to the House of Representatives?
- No -120
- Yes -120
Matt Gaetz is from the Florida 4th District, which represents the panhandle. The area is heavily conservative, and Gaetz is extremely popular.
Further, his constituency – given its support for President Donald Trump and its familiarity with the pervasive and vicious machinations of the #fakenews media machine – is unlikely to believe these accusations without anything short of a video or confession.
Gaetz would literally have to be caught red-handed in order to lose his base in North Florida. He’s a popular figure from a popular family, and he’s been a steadfast Trump ally throughout the MAGA era.
If Gaetz does indeed run for re-election next year, he should win easily, and this scandal shouldn’t affect his (or anyone else’s) 2022 House of Representatives odds.
That said, if the congressman were up for a Senate seat, those Vegas Senate odds would be quite different from what you see above.
In that case, statewide demographics would come into play, and Gaetz’ base wouldn’t be strong enough – or geographically limited enough – to earn him another term.
Still, a lot can happen in 18 months or so, and that’s how long it’ll be before Gaetz’ name appears on the congressional ballot.
BetOnline is taking no chances here, which is why you see plenty of vig on both sides of the line. And with the odds being the same for both sides, we’re going to pass.
Coin flips with negative moneylines aren’t our carpetbag, baby.
Will Matt Gaetz resign by 31st May 2021?
- No -1500
- Yes +600
This one’s a tough call, and if we’d seen this line before the scandalous allegations surfaced, we’d have felt good about taking the “Yes” at +600.
That’s because, as stated, there was some credible reporting that Gaetz was looking at bailing on the US House to take a job at Newsmax.
However, in the current climate – even if Gaetz was already planning on leaving the House for greener pastures – there’s virtually no chance he’ll resign.
Barring the release of a smoking-gun video or an outright confession, he’ll stay in congress as a point of pride, overriding any erstwhile plans to leave before 2022.
And pride aside, there’s also the prejudice aspect to consider: If Gaetz were to resign during this “investigation,” the move would be painted as an admission of guilt.
Public perception is everything to politicians – excepting The Donald, who didn’t care one whit about keeping up appearances when there was actual work to be done – and Gaetz isn’t Trump.
No way does Gaetz resign any time within the next several months.
Even at -1500, this is easy money.
It’s just not a lot of easy money, given the betting limits in play.
Will Matt Gaetz be convicted and jailed in 2021?
- No -300
- Yes +200
This is the surest bet on the boards, and it has nothing to do with whether Gaetz gets popped or not.
Considering the rate at which the US justice system moves and the massive amounts of wealth at Gaetz’ disposal, any trial and conviction would take years. Literal years.
In other words, because this bet will be graded on January 1, 2022, even if Gaetz is 100% guilty, he wouldn’t be found guilty any time soon.
If you don’t mind having a few hundred dollars tied up for seven-ish more months, this is the line that warrants going all in.
Gaetz could be censured, impeached, or expelled, but to be convicted and physically jailed, it’s a logistical impossibility for that to happen in 2021.
In fact, even if the wager had December 2022 as the cutoff date, we’d still go “No,” here.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -225 (-150)
- No +160 (+110)
We don’t know what’s happened, but last week, the Biden betting odds for the old coot to survive his first term in office were sitting at -150 for the affirmative and +110 for the negative.
Outside of meddling with a prominent criminal case to overturn the verdict and set up a retrial with the intention of fomenting perpetual nationwide race riots, the guy hasn’t made an appearance of note anywhere, and dementia doesn’t improve with time.
It gets worse.
This 125-point swing in Basement Joe’s favor seems to have come out of nowhere, but it’s absolutely the best time to get in a big-money wager on “No.”
Heck, we told you to go on “No” when the line was at +110, thinking there was no way it would hold more value going forward.
Hopefully, you ignored us then, but you definitely need to hear us now.
Bet the farm in Scranton if you have to.
Come on, man!