Currently, with the changing political climate anything can happen. If there’s anything this last election has taught me, it’s not to be surprised with anything anymore. On January 11th, a British gambling company, Ladbrokes, broke even odds that trump will be impeached or resign before the end of his first term. By 5pm that same day the odds rose.
These aren’t the only bets that are being offered by the British company. In fact, they have created a special group called the “Donald Trump Specials”. These include a bet on whether he will be reelected in 2020 (currently the odds are 2-1) and if he will visit Russia by the end of his first year (those odds are 5-4). Another UK based gambling company, Paddy Power, even took bets whether he would split with his wife, Melania, this year or if he would paint the entire white house gold.
Players registered at Ladbrokes can also now wager on which year Trump will leave office and even if he will try and stay in power longer than the constitution allows. They even have sections where you can make bets based on the frequency that Trump uses certain phrases. They call it “Buzzword Bingo”. Phrases like “make America great again” were heavy favorites in the odds.
Ladbrokes took over a thousand bets over the course of a week on trumps impeachment alone. Betting on US politics last year was the second-largest market that Ladbroke’s took bets on, only beaten by England’s grand national horse race.
It might be a good time to place a bet on Trumps impeachment, according to American University political historian, Allan Lichtman. Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1984 including Trumps win in November. According to cbsnews.com who interviewed Mr. Lichtman, he expects trump to get “impeached because of his lack of public service experience, past legal battles and unpredictable nature.”
The constitution explicitly states “Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors” are grounds for impeachment. It seems likely that through some channel Trump may even accidentally commit one of these crimes. Aside from the details in the leaked memo that everyone was talking about, Trump left business in the hands of his two sons, which is really not the same as placing your assets in a blind trust mind you, there is still some political leeway for from sketchy activity. What happens when foreign representatives stay at a Trump hotel? Well Trump himself as insisted that he will donate any and all of that money to the U.S treasury but under certain legal interpretations it can still be considered a bribe.
Whether Trump will be a terrible or wonderful president doesn’t seem to be ripe content for the election betting odds in Las Vegas just yet. People, so far are sticking to the topic of how long he will be able to hold office and what words he will use relatively in his speeches. Oh, and how long he will stay with his wife of course.