What Are The Vegas Odds Of A Peaceful Presidential Transition?

Peaceful transition of power

Some Vegas political sportsbooks have posted odds on whether or not President Donald Trump will accept a Democratic election victory. This is a prop hosted in addition to the typical Trump betting odds that have been on the boards all cycle.

Trump has repeatedly denied answering questions from reporters on whether he will step down from the presidency if he loses the upcoming 2020 Presidential election. Although in the Trump town hall last Thursday on NBC, the President stated that he wants a peaceful transition.

However, with only two weeks until Election Day, the polls in both the US Presidential election and Senatorial race betting lines signal a Democratic lead in the US.

In response, the President has ramped up claims that the Democratic party is rigging the 2020 Presidential election.

Many sources have debunked Trump’s claims as baseless.

Yet, according to a recent CNN article, the Democrats are still preparing a post-election strategy to combat the Trump administration’s attacks.

Along with negotiations with social media moguls like Facebook and Twitter to flag misinformation and premature victory declarations, Senate Democrats released a report titled “Counting Votes & What to Expect on Election Day” on Sunday.

The report outlines that not all state counting will be completed by November 3, as an effort to stymie potential election fraud and cyber-attacks.

Democrats are also preparing messaging campaigning defending the integrity of the election, fearful of Trump’s messaging power to undermine that integrity and the public trust of the government.

Third-party groups such as Priorities USA – Joe Biden’s largest super PAC funding group – are preparing litigation to defend the election if contested in the court system.

Not only Democrats are worried about Trump’s ability to damage the nation’s trust in our democratic system. A bipartisan group, comprised of Republicans like former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, formed the National Council on Election Integrity.

Both the Trump administration and the Biden campaign have mobilized hundreds of lawyers across the United States in preparation for a contested election or for another hanging chad moment that threw the 2000 Florida recount into disarray.

Officials are preparing for the election to be challenged in the highest courts, which is a possibility that Trump himself admitted could be on the table.

If this were to be the case, then a 133-year-old piece of US code called the Election Recount Act could come into play.

The Election Recount Act originated after the 1876 Presidential election between Rutherford Hayes and Samuel Tilden, a divisive election that decided the Reconstruction’s fate in the South.

The measure states that electors should be chosen for the electoral college, the constitutional body that elects the President, no more than 41 days after Election Day.

Simply put, this Act could mean that even if states have not finished vote counting by December 14, the respective state legislatures will choose the electors themselves. 

With massive delays expected this year due to mail-in ballots and other factors, the act poses severe threats for both candidates.

Many analysts believe Trump will be ahead in early voting. If, after 41 days, Trump is indeed ahead in states such as Florida that has a Republican-controlled legislature, then his administration may have a vested interest in delaying the counting as much as possible until December 14. A similar strategy could be employed by the Biden campaign in important swing states.

The odds on whether Trump accepts an electoral defeat are down, probably due to high action. However, another betting line is currently up that acts as an effective proxy for when the election results will be decided:

On which day will the loser concede the 2020 Presidential election?

Via MyBookie Sportsbook

  • Nov. 13 or later -165
  • Nov. 4 +225
  • Nov. 3 +400
  • Nov. 5 +500
  • Nov. 6 +650
  • Nov. 7 +800
  • Nov. 8 +900
  • Nov. 9 +900
  • Nov. 10 +1200
  • Nov. 11 +1200
  • Nov. 12 +1200

The -165 on Nov 13 or later indicates that bettors are keenly aware of the possibility of a contested election, and it’s our pick for the most likely outcome, as well.  

Sources: CNN, The Atlantic