Last night, there were several high-profile primary elections for US Senate and House seats across a handful of states.
For Trump’s reelection chances, however, the two most important races on the docket were the GOP contests in Alabama and Texas.
In Alabama, former US Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who ignominiously “recused” himself from the questionably fraudulent Russian investigation at the outset of Donald Trump’s Presidential term, was running a so-called “Never Trump” campaign to take back the Senate seat he held for two decades prior to 45 taking office.
His opponent was the POTUS’ pick, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.
In polling leading up to the race, Sessions seemed primed for victory in what would surely be called a referendum on Trump and his influence. In a few earlier federal primaries, after all, Trump’s picks have fared less than well upon final tally.
However, that didn’t turn out to be the case here, as Trump threw his support behind Tuberville, with the latter winning a race that was nowhere near as close as the polls indicated.
Ultimately, the AL race was called with 70% of precincts reporting, at which time Tuberville was beating Sessions by 24 points. Sessions conceded and publicly supported Tuberville for the November general against incumbent Senator Doug Jones (D).
Meanwhile, Dr. Ronny Jackson – Trump’s former physician – won his race in the Republican runoff for the US House for Texas’ 13th Congressional District.
Trump supported Jackson during his campaign against Josh Winegarner, who had the support of outgoing Representative Mac Thornberry.
Thornberry was wildly popular among Republicans in the state during his 25-year tenure. In 2018, Thornberry won reelection to the 13th by a nearly 65-point margin. He was popular, and his endorsement was thought to be a gamechanger for Winegarner.
However, Ronny Jackson defeated Winegarner in last night’s runoff, roughly 55.6% to 44.4%. This is an especially important indicator of Trump’s still meaningful influence, as back on March 3 in the Republican primary, Winegarner easily defeated Jackson 38.8% to 19.9%.
Once the field narrowed to two nominees, Trump’s support was good for a 30-point swing the other way.
How this will affect the Trump reelection odds remains unknown, but in two prominent races that should have been close, neither were, and the common thread between them was the President’s support of the winning candidates.
Currently, presumptive Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden still leads Trump at all the major Vegas election betting sites, and by fairly large margins.
2020 Presidential Election Winner
- Joe Biden -150
- Donald Trump +135
- Joe Biden -165
- Donald Trump +150
- Joe Biden -150
- Donald Trump +100
All in all, these primaries and runoffs have been good for Trump’s 2020 campaign, though many significant hurdles remain.
Several red states are having major coronavirus outbreaks after opening their economies back up, and masks are becoming a contentious political point of division.
These issues, coupled with the ongoing riots and protests – as well as the desecration and removal of historical US monuments and the movement to defund police – have drawn the lines for a drawn-out battle at the ballot box in November.
The Biden vs. Trump Presidential debates can’t come soon enough…