Trump Curve Flattens Before Coronavirus, Favors Re-Election

trump odds getting better during coronavirus response

As America is pulling out all the stops to “flatten the curve” of the Wuhan coronavirus, Presidential polling – and Donald Trump’s betting odds – have actually leveled out first.

While the initial impact of the rapid spread of the Chinese virus shook down the stock market to historical lows and undermined many of Trump’s re-election stumps, a majority of Americans – nearly 60% according to the most recent Gallup poll – now approve of how the President has handled the federal government’s COVID-19 response.

Additionally, on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its biggest single-day rally since 1933, jumping by over 2100 points.

A strong economy is Trump’s biggest strength, but a lagging one is his biggest Achilles’ heel. A major rapid recovery – and a bailout for workers impacted by coronavirus – could be his golden ticket to winning in November.   

Bafflingly, the Democrats seem to be overplaying their own hand very publicly.

Just days ago, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi nixed a popular bipartisan emergency bailout package for furloughed and laid off Americans to stuff her own 1200-page funding bill full of pork for partisan projects and initiatives.

And though a deal was reached today, people have taken notice. How that sours the public on the Democratic party – and on the Joe Biden campaign – remains to be seen. Of course, as always, you’ll see the first hints of any pushback on the betting boards.

In fact, on some lines, it may have already started.

Compare today’s wagers from those posted a few days ago, and you’ll see some cracks forming in the Democrat coronavirus firewall. The previous odds are in parentheses, with gains in bold and losses in italics:

Political Odds Influenced By Coronavirus

Via Bovada

2020 US Presidential Election Winner

  • Donald Trump -105 (+105)
  • Joe Biden +100 (-105)
  • Bernie Sanders +4000 (-)
  • Andrew Cuomo +5000 (-)
  • Mike Pence +5000 (-)
  • Hillary Clinton +6000 (+8000)
  • Nikki Haley +10000 (-)
  • Michelle Obama +20000 (-)
  • Tulsi Gabbard +50000 (-)

Democratic Candidate Odds 2020

  • Joe Biden -900 (+1400)
  • Hillary Clinton +1400 (-)
  • Bernie Sanders +2000 (+2500)
  • Andrew Cuomo +3000 (+2500)
  • Michelle Obama +3000 (+4000)

Will Trump Complete His First Term?

  • Yes -775 (-750)
  • No +450 (+440)

Will There Be A Recession In Trump’s 1st Term?

  • Yes -850 (-650)
  • No +475 (+400)

US House Of Representatives Control

  • Democrats -290 (-280)
  • Republicans +210 (+205)

US Senate Control

  • Republicans -135 (-130)
  • Democrats +105 (+100)

House And Senate Balance Of Power

  • Democratic House, Democratic Senate +130 (-)
  • Democratic House, Republican Senate +150 (-)
  • Republican House, Republican Senate +300 (-)
  • Republican House, Democratic Senate +5000 (-)

Overall, the Vegas election odds regarding Congress haven’t moved much. The left is still favored to keep the US House, while the right is favored to hold the Senate. The recession, for its part, seems to already be upon us, and the wager above seems like a decent risk even at -850. Economic recovery from the coronavirus will be a long-term affair.

Meanwhile, Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election are surging a bit and have overtaken Biden’s, mirroring his aforementioned rise in crisis approval polling. Trump’s chances to finish his first term have also increased.  

However, you’ll also notice something very interesting at Bovada, which is the line on Joe Biden to win the Democratic nomination. Uncle Joe has been in a media quarantine for the last couple of weeks, if not a medical quarantine, and people are talking.

Uncle Joe’s odds to win the Democratic nomination were upwards of -1400 just a few days ago. But given his extended absence – and the theory that the DNC could use Biden to win the nom, abdicate, and make way for an “automatic” pet candidate like Andrew Cuomo or Hillary Clinton (both of whom are surging up the boards right now, by the way) – those odds have plummeted.

As of right now, Biden is sitting at just -900.

Yes, he’s still a massive favorite to win, but he’s merely half the favorite he used to be.

The public – and bettors – are finally giving credence to the idea that Biden’s campaign has been primarily an effort to prevent the socialist Bernie Sanders from grabbing the party nomination and not necessarily an “honest” bid for the presidency.

Despite the trials and tribulations that COVID-19 presents the world, conspiracy theorists are living the dream right now.

And political bettors are, too.