Sometimes, the odds really make no sense.
Individually, they do. Even if they don’t necessarily jibe with reality, they’re at least internally consistent.
But when you start looking at the Vegas political betting boards as a whole, that’s when you’ll sometimes come across truly bizarre juxtapositions.
Right now, at Bovada, you can find the perfect example. Consider the following set of 2024 Presidential election odds:
2024 Presidential Election Odds
US Presidential Election 2024 – Democratic Candidate
- Joe Biden +125
- Kamala Harris +140
- Pete Buttigieg +1000
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +2500
- Elizabeth Warren +2500
- Michelle Obama +3000
- Cory Booker +4500
- Michael Bloomberg +5000
- Sherrod Brown +5000
- Stacey Abrams +5000
- Amy Klobuchar +6500
- Bernie Sanders +6500
- Hillary Clinton +6500
- Andrew Yang +7500
- Gretchen Whitmer +7500
- Tammy Duckworth +8000
- Tulsi Gabbard +8000
- Andrew Cuomo +10000
- Beto O’Rourke +10000
- Deval Patrick +10000
- + More
This 2024 election futures bet is an example of a line that makes no logical sense but remains logically actionable. Its premise is clear and there’s no ambiguity.
Of course, Joe Biden clearly isn’t going to be the Democrat Party’s flagbearer in 2024, and VP Kamala Harris almost certainly won’t be, either.
Even Mayor Pete is more or less despised by most of America and carries the stink of the current administration on his fancy pressed collar. There are no coattails to ride.
Frankly, nobody on this list seems like a slam dunk to get the DNC nod in 2024 (albeit Andrew Yang is the most fundamentally likeable candidate).
And why Tulsi Gabbard isn’t just a Republican yet is anyone’s guess. She has no chance to graduate to any higher office under the Democrat banner.
US Presidential Election 2024 – Republican Candidate
- Donald Trump +100
- Ron DeSantis +450
- Nikki Haley +800
- Mike Pence +1200
- Mike Pompeo +2500
- Josh Hawley +3000
- Kristi Noem +3000
- Ted Cruz +3000
- Tom Cotton +3000
- Candace Owens +4000
- Greg Abbott +5000
- Tim Scott +5000
- Donald Trump Jr. +8000
- Charlie Baker +10000
- Condoleezza Rice +10000
- Dan Crenshaw +10000
- John Kasich +10000
- Kanye West +10000
- Kayleigh McEnany +10000
- Mitt Romney +10000
- + More
This one makes sense across the board, at least at the top of the board.
That said, Mike Pence hasn’t got a snowflake’s chance in hell, and Ted Cruz isn’t going to risk running against The Donald and getting humiliated on national television again.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. seems to be too far down the list, Kanye West will never convince the establishment to back his beats, and Mittens is a turncoat.
US Presidential Election 2024 – Overall Winner
- Donald Trump +300
- Joe Biden +450
- Kamala Harris +600
- Ron DeSantis +800
- Mike Pence +1800
- Nikki Haley +1800
- Pete Buttigieg +2500
- Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +3300
- Cory Booker +4000
- Elizabeth Warren +4000
- Ted Cruz +4000
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +5000
- Amy Klobuchar +5000
- Andrew Cuomo +5000
- Dan Crenshaw +5000
- Donald Trump Jr. +5000
- Josh Hawley +5000
- Kanye West +5000
- Kristi Noem +5000
- Mark Cuban +5000
- + More
Here’s where the lines start to get externally inconsistent.
As you can see, Trump is favored to win against any other candidate – on the left or the right – in 2024. By itself, this makes sense.
Trump’s the GOAT, after all, and people miss him.
But then there’s this:
US Presidential Election 2024 – Winning Party
- Democrat -130
- Republican -110
- Any Other +1400
So even though Trump is the overwhelming favorite to take the White House in 2024, the Democrats are still strongly favored to win the next Presidential election.
This – when taking the other lines into account – doesn’t seem to add up. And, considering the context of the those other lines, it doesn’t.
However, if you look beneath the surface, it actually has some merit. It’s not a pleasant assessment, and the scenario it presents would be tragic, but the logic is this:
Trump is 75. By November 2022, he’d be 78. While Trump seems to be in good health, anything can happen between now and the next election. At his age, there are simply more unknowns.
Now obviously, Biden’s even older. But the Democrats have the benefit of incumbency and Dominion voting machines, and Harris – who’s considerably younger – is right behind Biden on the boards.
Indeed, in the general, her odds are even better than Ron DeSantis’ chances.
So, how much sense all these lines make – individually or on aggregate – is ultimately up to you.
We don’t think they’re all that sensible (with the exception of Trump mopping the floor with communist filth), but there are good payouts to be had whichever way you go.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his full first term?
- Yes -220 (-220)
- No +155 (+155)
Bafflement persists.
Joe Biden Exit Date
- 2025 -140 (-140)
- Not Before 2026 +335 (+335)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- 2023 +550 (+550)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
- 2021 +10000 (+5000)
It looks like The Big Guy™ might actually make it through to the new year.
Will Joe Biden leave office via Presidential impeachment?
- No -900 (-900)
- Yes +500 (+500)
Still never.
Joe Biden Approval Rating On Jan. 1, 2022
- Under 43% -115 (42% -135)
- Over 43% -115 (42% -105)
Under and underwater.