Well, it’s primary season again, and you know what that means: Lots of convenient news stories about which the Midterms are “referendums” (i.e. “mass shootings,” “Ukraine,” “monkeypox,” etc. – but not gas prices, at least according to most talking heads).
But there’s also another angle to consider, and it’s one that bettors might appreciate since none of the top Vegas election betting sites actually have odds on any of the current events du jour. You know, outside of the really important stuff, like the Johnny Depp-Amber Heard trial.
While the first primaries of the cycle have come and gone, there are some lessons bettors can glean from those. The biggest of which is that – on the Republican odds side of the boards – Donald Trump endorsements are worth their weight in gold.
Seriously, how else does Dr. Oz actually pull off the primary upset and bounce yuge favorite David McCormick in the PA GOP Senate race?
Now, to be sure, a Trump endorsement doesn’t make a given candidate a guaranteed lock. MAGA isn’t batting 1.000, with the biggest test of Trump’s kingmaking coming in the recent Georgia Governor primary.
There, Trump endorsed David Perdue over Brian Kemp (which, ironically, is the candidate Trump previously endorsed for GA Governor, who then summarily won and did nothing as Georgia was the blatant Ground Zero for the Big Steal™ in 2020).
However, Kemp was favored to win the Republican primary in Georgia by 40 points or so, so Trump’s endorsement of Perdue was more of a shot at Kemp than a strategic test of the strength of Trump’s political brand.
There’s basically no way The Donald expected Perdue to win, but he wanted to “send a message” to Kemp. You know, a little salt. A little shade.
In any case, Trump’s endorsement record since he took office in 2016 is something like 98 percent or so off better than 300 picks or something ludicrous like that.
And the Dr. Oz win in PA is more evidence of not only how good the President is at picking winners but also how good he is at making apparent also-rans into winners.
Dr. Oz. Imagine.
Anyway, with a handful of state primaries being contested on Tuesday, it’s time to consider the odds in light of 45’s stamp of approval. Here’s how the books have it:
2022 California Primary Election
2022 Iowa Primary Election
2022 Mississippi Primary Election
2022 Montana Primary Election
2022 New Jersey Primary Election
2022 New Mexico Primary Election
2022 South Dakota Primary Election
Okay, what gives, guys?
Seriously, there should be odds for these races, and yet somehow, there aren’t. The only reason that might be the case is that they’re all a bunch of uncompetitive foregone conclusions.
And frankly, that’s probably the case.
Typically, online sportsbooks – even really good, comprehensive online sportsbooks – aren’t going to post odds on all the races of the political season. Sure, they could bake in enough vig to make it profitable no matter what, but maybe it’s just more trouble than it’s worth.
Nevertheless, we want to track the Trumpster on his endorsements for this go-round, as we’ve got the feeling that if he doesn’t run in 2024, he’ll play a huge part on the campaign trail for the Republican candidate that does – say, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Here they are for tomorrow’s races:
- California – Trump Endorsement: Kevin McCarthy (US House, incumbent); Tom McClintock (US House, incumbent); Kevin Kiley (US House, open seat)
- Iowa – Trump Endorsement: Chuck Grassley (US Senate, incumbent)
- Mississippi – Trump Endorsement: Steve Carra (US House, challenger), John Gibbs (US House, challenger); Bill Huizenga (US House, incumbent); Lisa McClain (US House, incumbent); John Moolenaar (US House, incumbent)
- Montana – Trump Endorsement: Matt Rosendale (US House, incumbent); Ryan Zinke (US House, open seat)
- New Jersey – Trump Endorsement: N/A (Trump really hates New Jersey politicians)
- New Mexico – Trump Endorsement: N/A
- South Dakota – Trump Endorsement: Kristi Noem (Governor, incumbent)