We’ve been busy with the Super Bowl over the last week or so, but now that that hopeless fiasco is over and we can get five months or so of incompetent refs not ruining everything for crying out loud, we’re back to even more incompetent politicians ruining everything even worse.
Ah, to be home again!
To that end, there have been some amusing developments in the political world since our last update. Here’s a quick recap:
The Honkening™ up in the Great White North is going nowhere fast, the Chinese Winter Olympics are allegedly on TV and overflowing with talentless defectors and drugged up tweens, the entire globe is being gaslighted into thinking Russia’s going to invade Ukraine on Wednesday for some reason, and etc.
Aside from that ragtag team of based Canadian truckers running Fidel Castro’s son out of town while simultaneously forcing Ontario Premier Doug Ford to rescind the province’s vaccine passport rules, it’s all very stupid.
But at least you can bet on some of it.
The following Vegas election odds and other political betting lines are those we’ve identified to have moved the most significantly since we last checked in, and we’re going to explain/tout each one with the whys and wherefores.
Unless we have no idea, in which case you’re on your own.
You know, kind of like always.
The following odds are from BetOnline Sportsbook.
Next Nominated SCOTUS Justice
- Ketanji Brown Jackson -130 (-225)
- J Michelle Childs +165 (+300)
- Leondra Kruger +400 (+450)
- Candace Jackson-Akiwumi +4500 (+3300)
- Wilhelmina Wright +4500 (+3300)
- Kamala Harris +6600 (N/A)
- Sherrilyn Ifill +6600 (+6600)
- Eunice Lee +10000 (+10000)
- Tiffany Cunningham +10000 (+6600)
- Michelle Obama +15000 (+15000)
- Stacey Abrams +25000 (+25000)
- Maxine Waters +50000 (+50000)
- Meghan Markle +50000 (+50000)
- Oprah Winfrey +50000 (+50000)
After news broke that Ketanji Brown Jackson was the heavy favorite to be picked by Joe Biden and company to fill outgoing SCOTUS Justice Stephen Breyer’s seat, her Supreme Court nomination odds actually narrowed.
That’s surprising in and of itself.
Of course, Kamala seemed like a longshot to be chosen as Uncle Joe’s running mate in 2020, so who knows. An underdog could easily win, here. They’re all equally unqualified, so it’s really anyone’s guess.
In general, though, here’s the strategy: The more exotic the name, the better the candidate’s actual chance of winning. With that in mind, we’re putting a few bucks on Candace Jackson-Akiwumi at +4500.
That one’s exotic and hyphenated!
2022 Hungarian Prime Minister Election – Winner
- Viktor Orban -700 (-400)
- Peter Marki-Zay +400 (+250)
When these 2022 Hungarian election odds were first posted, current PM Viktor Orban (aka the “Hungarian Donald Trump” or “Hungarian Vladimir Putin”) was only pulling -220 odds, while his lefty challenger was pulling +150 odds.
However, after the Biden administration has shown what a disaster lefty policies can be – and how quickly they can become disasters – the conservative incumbent is “polling” much better on the odds boards.
2022 Punjab Elections (India) – Winning Party
- Aam Aadmi Party -700 (-300)
- United Progressive Alliance +350 (+175)
- Shiromani Akali Dal+ +3000 (+3300)
- National Democratic Alliance +10000 (+10000)
- Sanyukt Samaj Morcha+ +20000 (+20000)
We don’t know what’s going on in India, but the Aam Aadmi Party has more than doubled its odds to win – which, for you, means it’s more than halved its payout.
As with all futures betting, you’re always going to get the best values early on in the betting/election cycle.
2022 Colombian Presidential Election – Winner
- Gustavo Petro -150 (-160)
- Rodolfo Hernandez +375 (+800)
- Sergio Fajardo +375 (+300)
- Alejandro Char +1200 (+1100)
- Federico Gutierrez +1600 (+1100)
- Humberto de la Calle +2500 (+2500)
- Marta Lucia Ramirez +3300 (+2500)
- Tomas Uribe +5000 (+2500)
Gustavo Petro – whoever that is – has slightly extended his odds as the favorite to win the 2022 Colombia Presidential Election, but the real movers on this line have been Rodolfo Hernandez (425-point gain) and Federico Gutierrez (500-point gain).
Of course, We don’t know who they are, either, and we don’t know why they’re more popular than before.
Meanwhile, the bottom has completely fallen out for the final two candidates on the list.
2022 Philippine Presidential Election – Winner
- Bongbong Marcos -400(-600)
- Leni Robredo +250 (+350)
- Manny Pacquiao +1200 (+1200)
- Isko Moreno +3500 (+2000)
- Bong Go +10000 (+10000)
- Sara Duterte-Carpio +10000 (+10000)
- Alan Peter Cayetano +15000 (+15000)
- Antonio Trillanes +15000 (+15000)
Bongbong Marcos is still going to win this thing (with Mayor Sara taking the Philippines VP election), but his odds are narrowing significantly as the election nears. We’re not sure why.
Marcos’ odds started out at -1200, but since then, they’ve slipped steadily to -600 and now to -400.
Leni Robredo is the only credible challenger, of course, though the gap between them is still significant at 650 points.
Will Joe Rogan Be Cancelled From Spotify In 2022?
- No -400
- Yes +250
This line’s actually from Bovada Sportsbook, which is the only sportsbook to post anything about the current Joe Rogan kerfuffle.
As a refresher: Spotify told Neil Young and various other counter-counterculture aged hippy hypocrites to get rekt after they protested Joe Rogan for having the unmitigated gall to discuss coronavirus vaccine alternatives.
But then, some Twitter sleuths with nothing better to do went through 5000 hours of podcast audio to find Rogan saying a word that isn’t allowed to be uttered by his kind (unless you’re the sitting President of the United States), and they pounced.
Now, the classical liberal/Libertarian podcaster is being labeled an “alt right racist” or something. Rogan, in response, caved to the woke mob not once, but twice, and then fined himself $100 million.
Spotify won’t have to cancel Rogan if he’s going to wilt like that. His former fans will do it for them.
2022 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Biden Complete Full First Term?
- Yes -220 (-220)
- No +155 (+155)
Year Of Joe Biden Exit
- 2025 -180 (-180)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +450 (+450)
- 2023 +550 (+550)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
Biden To Win Second Term
- No -800 (-800)
- Yes +425 (+425)
Biden Approval on March 1
- Under 41% +100 (+185)
- Between 41.00 and 41.99% +145 (-135)
- Between 42.0 and 42.99% +350 (+400)
- 43% or Higher +1200
Joe Biden has +1200 odds to have one of the worst approval ratings of all time as his best possible approval rating.