No Russia-Ukraine Odds? What Gives, Vegas Political Betting Sites?

putin riding bear

A couple of weeks ago, a bunch of annoyed truckers in Canada (of all places) effectively cured COVID after more than two years of international lockdowns.

Then, late last week, Russia formally made the pandemic a thing of the past – at least for now – with its alleged invasion of Ukraine.

Details, of course, have been scant, with the mainstream coverage seemingly limited to Marvel-tier 80 IQ lies like the “Ghost of Kyiv” female fighter pilot and similar #fakenews nonsense.

Indeed, the revolution will not be televised, it’ll be livestreamed on Twitch. Etc.

Despite a global Internet and video cameras in the hands of every person on the planet, objective truth remains a total mystery. Even politicians who are supposed to be “in the know” are dupes at best or active bamboozlers at worst.

Sometimes both:

screenshot of tweet about Samuyil Hyde shooting down russian planes.


Every reported event so far has been either demonstrably false – like this laughable business about Ukrainian president Voldemort Zelensky gearing up to fight on the “front lines” (which is only being debunked by an obscure Indian newspaper while Western media pretends some guy it never heard of a month ago is George Washington, Jr.) – or fundamentally unfalsifiable.

Nobody has any idea what’s really going on over there.  

Which is probably why we’re not getting any betting lines over here.


Somehow, there are no Vegas political odds on the outcome of this globally hyped skirmish between Russia and Ukraine. No nuclear war odds, no Ukraine-to-the-UN odds, no US-troops-on-the-ground odds. Nothing.

Honestly, it’s a bit baffling, and the only real reason not to have these odds is that the entire affair is pretty much unprovable. Contested outcomes are as guaranteed on the battlefield as they are in the media as they are at the sportsbooks themselves.

However, now that the Freedom Convoy in the Great White North is out of the news cycle (though by no means off the streets), there are finally odds on the fallout from that.

After all, compared to OMG WAR™, that little using-emergency-war-powers-to-seize-your-bank-accounts thing is ever so less controversial.

Here are the new Canada political specials on the international politics boards at Bovada Sportsbook:

Next Leader Of The Conservative Party Of Canada

  • Pierre Poilievre -250
  • Jean Charest +350
  • Leslyn Lewis +750
  • Caroline Mulroney +1400
  • Rona Ambrose +1400
  • Peter MacKay +1800
  • Brad Wall +2000
  • Doug Ford +2500
  • Michelle Rempel Garner +2500
  • Patrick Brown +2500

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of the trucker protests have been widely panned as authoritarian overreach, as he’s ordered his government to financially ruin anyone who participated – even indirectly – in the weeks-long blockade.

Naturally, this has emboldened the nation’s conservatives and likely made the party a bit larger and stronger in the short term.

While we aren’t sure what a Canadian conversative looks like, it’s probably dressed a bit better than a Canadian liberal. Hopefully, they’ll pick the right person to lead the brand – whatever it is – over the next few years.

Heck, maybe The Donald can get Canadian citizenship.

If a Cuban anchor baby can be PM, why not an American billionaire?

Will Justin Trudeau Finish His 3rd Term As Prime Minister of Canada?

  • Yes -775
  • No +450


Trudeau is essentially bulletproof. Despite being the pretty face of the hivemind of identity politics, the guy survived what should have been a career-ending blackface scandal with literally zero fallout.

Compared to that, what’s ruining the livelihoods of a few thousand tradesmen who just don’t want to be forced to take an unproven experimental gene therapy as a condition to keep their already isolated, socially distanced jobs?  

Will Justin Trudeau Win A 4th Term As Prime Minister of Canada?

  • No -240
  • Yes +175

If he runs, maybe.

Before the “Russian invasion,” we’d have taken the “No” here without much consideration. Even without the truckers dunking on his hypocrisy and petty tyrant streak, Trudeau was getting a bit long in the tooth.

But although Trudeau’s popularity is waning due to his tunnel vision on the convoy, people have short memories.

Half the country probably already forgot about The Honkening™ (minus the occasional tinnitus flareup), and the other half won’t hold out much longer.

The narrative, remember, has changed course.

Look over there!

2022 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update

Via BetOnline Sportsbook

Will Biden Complete Full First Term?

  • Yes -220 (-220)
  • No +155 (+155)

Biden To Win Second Term?

  • No -800 (-800)
  • Yes +425 (+425)

Joe Biden Exit Date

  • 2025 -180 (-180)
  • 2022 +400 (+400)
  • Not Before 2026 +450 (+450)
  • 2023 +550 (+550)
  • 2024 +1400 (+1400)

Biden Approval Rating On March 1

  • Under 41% N/A (+100)
  • Between 41.00 and 41.99% N/A (+145)
  • Between 42.0 and 42.99% N/A (+350)
  • 43% or Higher N/A (+1200)

We’re coming up on the end of February, so these odds are now down.

However, you can see where they were when we checked in last week, and – given Biden’s current approval rating of just 40.7% – it appears that the basement is where you’ll find Basement Joe.

As usual.