Well, that was…interesting.
With the vote count delayed in all the most important swing states, we won’t know the results of the 2020 Presidential election until Thursday or Friday.
However, despite all that, the crux for Donald Trump’s reelection chances now hinge almost entirely on Nevada.
Unfortunately, Nevada has publicly stated that it will not continue its count until tomorrow at the earliest.
Trump’s path to victory requires him to hold onto Georgia despite the potential influx of votes from the heavily-Democratic Atlanta area, win Pennsylvania (where he is currently up by 10 points, though only 64% of the vote has been tallied so far), and emerge victorious in the aforementioned Nevada.
2020 Presidential Election Odds – Remaining Swing States
Georgia Election Odds
- Donald Trump -150
- Joe Biden +115
In Georgia, per USA Today’s election tracker, Trump currently leads Biden 2,382,470 (50.5%) to 2,280,258 (48.3%).
Up by a net 102,212 votes with 94% of the total vote already in, Biden has a small opportunity to take the state if the preponderance of ballots from the Atlanta metro area and its surrounding suburbs swing his way by a large margin.
It’s certainly possible, and if Biden wins Georgia, he wins the election.
Michigan Election Odds
- Joe Biden -1600
- Donald Trump +700
At 2:30 AM Wednesday morning, when MI stopped counting its ballots for a timely “break,” Trump was up by about three points. This morning, he’s down by 0.3 points (2,525,389 to 2,509,601, or a net lead for Biden of 15,788).
Roughly 95% of the vote is in for MI, and Biden should hold on to win by a hair. Put this one in the win column for Creepy Joe.
Nevada Election Odds
- Joe Biden -800
- Donald Trump +450
Nevada is the most important remaining state for Trump if all the trends in the other battlegrounds vest in the direction they’re currently headed. If Trump can win NV, he’ll break 270 electoral votes and take the White House for a second term.
Currently, Biden is up in NV with 588,252 votes compared against Trump’s 580,605 votes (or a 7647-vote delta). With only 67% of the vote in for NV, if the Election Day ballots favor Trump and have yet to be counted, he has a real chance to win the state.
For bettors, this is a potentially hefty payout at Trump +450.
North Carolina Election Odds
- Donald Trump -450
- Joe Biden +300
North Carolina is statistically over.
If the vote holds and no ballots are found lurking in various bathrooms or car trunks in important counties, this is easily in the Trump column. He’s up 2,732,104 to 2,655,392, so the gap Biden would have to close – with 94% of the vote already counted – sits at 76,712 votes.
There don’t seem to be enough votes left in the state to swing it blue.
Pennsylvania Election Odds
- Joe Biden -200
- Donald Trump +150
Right now, as you can see, Biden is favored to win PA.
However, with 64% of the vote already counted, Trump leads by nearly 10 points, 54.1% to 44.8% (3,027,722 to 2,507,491). That’s a 520,231-vote margin.
Depending on how the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas carry Biden with the remainder of the vote, the Democratic candidate could win the state in the coming days.
Of course, if that happens, as with a Biden win in Georgia, he takes the White House easily.
Wisconsin Election Odds
- Joe Biden -1400
- Donald Trump +650
Wisconsin saw Trump enjoy a healthy lead when ballot counting was inexplicably halted in the wee hours this morning.
However, the overnight vote came in for Biden at a clip of 14-1, which defies most mathematical probabilities. That kind of margin is more than suspicious, and it could be challenged in court (though the chances of a reversal from the bench are slim to none).
With 95% of the votes now counted, Biden leads 1,630,334 to 1,609,586. Trump is unlikely to be able to close the gap and overtake that 20,748 margin.
By our reckoning, Joe Biden will almost certainly become the next President of the United States. He has a much clearer and cleaner path to victory at this point than Trump, assuming he wins both MI and WI (which seem like slam dunks).
So with that in mind:
If Biden wins Georgia, he’s in.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he’s in.
If Biden wins Nevada, he’s in.
For Trump to get back into the Oval Office, things are far tighter. Given his presumptive losses in MI and WI – as well as assuming he wins in GA and PA – Trump has to win Nevada.
That’s certainly possible, but it’s becoming literally his only path to victory.
All that said, there’s no way that Trump will concede anytime soon, nor will Biden. The results in most or all of the above states will absolutely be contested in court, ballot harvesting and late ballots will be investigated, and the process will drag on more or less indefinitely.
However, the numbers in any state recount are unlikely to turn the tide in either direction, so all the votes are a dead cert to stand.
As a result, Biden is now an extremely heavy favorite to win the presidency at all three major election betting sites.
2020 Presidential Election Odds – 11/4/20
- Joe Biden -460
- Donald Trump +320
- Joe Biden -430
- Donald Trump +350
- Joe Biden -380
- Donald Trump +260
Whichever side of this thing you’re on, good luck – It’s going to be a long four years.
But at least COVID won’t be a thing anymore.