And the results are in!
Assuming they can be trusted (they can’t) – or, at least, assuming they’ll stand as “legitimate” (they will) – we can take a look at how all the election wagers of the week played out for the US Senate GA runoffs.
This, of course, will give us at Vegas Election Odds a chance to see how good our instincts are in this new age of political betting. But more importantly, it’ll also give bettors a quick recap of how each line was (or will be) graded.
And it might just let some of us gloat a little bit.
Here were the biggest Vegas election props (via Bovada) for the Georgia runoff and how each one ended up:
2021 GA Senate Runoff Election Odds Results
US Senate Election Winner (Special)
- Raphael Warnock -200
- Kelly Loeffler +150
Winner: Warnock -200
Our advice was clear on this one, and we followed the general betting consensus (and some common sense) in touting Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock here.
The payout wasn’t terrible for those who bet on the candidate, either, especially given his overwhelming comparative popularity per the MSM.
That said, the race was closer than we thought it would be, with Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler taking 49.4% of the vote compared against Warnock’s 50.6%.
While payouts might be delayed due to a potential recount, the results will not change.
US Senate Election Winner (General)
- David Perdue -130
- Jon Ossoff +100
Winner: Ossoff +100
Republican incumbent David Perdue won the November general by a healthy margin, despite a vigorous LP challenge cannibalizing some of the GOP vote.
However, as expected, the Libertarians sat out the two-party GA runoff, and the left appears to have mobilized (or “mobilized”) better than the right. Again.
While the race has yet to be called, with 98% of precincts reporting, Ossoff is leading Perdue 50.2% to 49.8%, which translates to a delta of 17,025 votes.
There’s a small chance that Perdue could still emerge victorious here, but it’s very small. This is basically finished, pending a recount. And that won’t change anything.
So if you listened to our advice and took Ossoff at +100, you’ve doubled your money.
You’re welcome.
Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?
- Republican Party -145
- Democratic Party +110
Winner: Democratic Party +110
We chose the Democrats here, despite the GOP having more “paths” to hit on this prop.
Additionally, for all those who placed bets on the US Senate odds for the balance of power in the next Congress, that wager will vest as soon as this one does.
That said, your payouts will be considerably worse if you chose the Democrats back in, say, October, instead of yesterday afternoon.
We hope you waited, but either way, you’ve won some cash.
We’re three for three!
Loeffler vs. Warnock Total Votes
- 3.8 To 3.99 Million +150
- 4.0 To 4.19 Million +175
- 4.2 To 4.39 Million +525
- 3.6 To 3.79 Million +725
- 4.4 To 4.59 Million +1600
- 3.4 To 3.59 Million +3000
- 4.6 To 4.79 Million +5000
- 3.0 To 3.19 Million +10000
- 3.2 To 3.39 Million +10000
- 4.8 To 4.99 Million +10000
- 5 Million Or More +10000
- Less Than 3 Million +10000
Winner: 4.4 To 4.59 Million +1600
The total votes cast in this race – as it currently stands with 98% of precincts reporting – is 4,406,279.
We were pretty close in our rationale, though we missed the mark. Ultimately, we picked 4.6-4.79 million, enticed by that huge +5000 moneyline.
However, all those third-party voters from November failed to show up, driving the totals down a bit (which we did try to account for).
While it’s true that the full vote isn’t in just yet, with 98% reporting, there aren’t enough outstanding ballots to bump this bet to the next outcome.
Loeffler vs. Warnock Winning Margin
- Warnock By Less Than 1% +375
- Warnock By 1% – 1.99% +400
- Warnock By 2% – 2.99% +500
- Loeffler By Less Than 1% +625
- Loeffler By 1% – 1.99% +850
- Warnock By 3% – 3.99% +950
- Loeffler By 2% – 2.99% +1500
- Warnock By 4% – 4.99% +1800
- Warnock By 6% Or More +2000
- Loeffler By 3% – 3.99% +3000
- Loeffler By 4% – 4.99% +3000
- Warnock By 5% – 5.99% +3000
- Loeffler By 6% Or More +5000
- Loeffler By 5% – 5.99% +10000
Winner: Warnock By 1% – 1.99% +400
Warnock has won this race, currently leading by 1.2% with 98% of the vote formally counted (allegedly). There aren’t enough votes left to change the result for betting purposes, so if that’s what you chose, your check’s in the mail!
Ours sure is, as we nailed this one in our Georgia runoff election odds preview.
Perdue vs. Ossoff Total Votes
- 4.0 To 4.19 Million +150
- 3.8 To 3.99 Million +175
- 4.2 To 4.39 Million +425
- 3.6 To 3.79 Million +800
- 4.4 To 4.59 Million +1500
- 3.4 To 3.59 Million +5000
- 3.0 To 3.19 Million +10000
- 3.2 To 3.39 Million +10000
- 4.6 To 4.79 Million +10000
- 4.8 To 4.99 Million +10000
- 5 Million Or More +10000
- Less Than 3 Million +10000
Winner: 4.4 To 4.59 Million +1500
With 98% of the vote counted (or so they say), the combined vote total for the Perdue-Ossoff race stands at 4,406,181.
There aren’t enough remaining ballots to change this outcome for bettors, though Perdue could still mathematically win the race.
But that’s about as unlikely to happen as we are to collect a payout on this wager, as we deferred – and gave you bad advice besides.
Don’t you know not to listen to people on the Internet?
Perdue Vs. Ossoff Winning Margin
- Ossoff By Less Than 1% +350
- Ossoff By 1% – 1.99% +400
- Perdue By Less Than 1% +475
- Perdue By 1% – 1.99% +550
- Ossoff By 2% – 2.99% +850
- Perdue By 2% – 2.99% +850
- Perdue By 3% – 3.99% +1500
- Ossoff By 3% – 3.99% +1600
- Ossoff By 4% – 4.99% +3000
- Ossoff By 5% – 5.99% +5000
- Ossoff By 6% Or More +5000
- Perdue By 4% – 4.99% +5000
- Perdue By 5% – 5.99 +5000
- Perdue By 6% Or More +10000
Winner: Ossoff By Less Than 1% +350
We didn’t go on this one, calling it “anyone’s guess.” Well, given that the favorite won, there were an awful lot of those “anyones.”
Literal props to you if you called it correctly!
Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the fewest runoff votes?
- Kelly Loeffler -130
- Jon Ossoff +225
- David Perdue +700
- Raphael Warnock +850
Winner: Kelly Loeffler -130
While the numbers will change slightly, the betting outcome likely won’t, as the outstanding votes simply aren’t there to alter the results. Here’s how all the candidates fared:
- Warnock – 2,230,231
- Ossoff – 2,211,603
- Perdue – 2,194,578
- Loeffler – 2,176,048
We didn’t wager on this prop, but we managed to dish out some winning advice, so we’ll add it to our win column (because egos are a thing):
“Still, if you have to pick, Loeffler definitely got the fewest votes in November, so that might be as good a metric as any.”
Remarkably, however, both Perdue and Ossoff garnered far fewer votes than they did in November, which comes as a surprise.
Both candidates were projected to increase their vote totals in the runoff, particularly given new registrations and the fact that LP candidate Shane Hazel – who earned 115,000 votes or so in the general – wasn’t on the ballot.
Of course, protests votes don’t exist when there’s nothing to protest.
Which Georgia Senate Candidate will win the most runoff votes?
- Raphael Warnock +105
- David Perdue +170
- Jon Ossoff +500
- Kelly Loeffler +1200
Winner – Raphael Warnock +105
Here, as above, we didn’t bite, given the variables in play. However, again as above, we offered some winning advice:
“…Warnock as the favorite feels right. …
[His] is the more contentious race, he’s the only black candidate on the GA ballot, and his campaign spent bigly over the last month or so.
All those things should translate well in terms of turnout…”
So there you have it, folks: All the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff results that are fit to print.
While we might not be thrilled with the outcome (a federal government trifecta is a historically bad thing for spending, stock markets, and foreign policy), we’re pretty happy that we went 4-1 on our bets and 6-1 on our touts.
We think that deserves a bookmark.
After all, there are a lot more Vegas election odds coming up…