With Donald Trump out of office, we expected a bit of a slowdown in the betting odds on offer from the top Vegas political gambling sites.
However, we didn’t expect them to stagnate quite so badly.
Bovada LV – usually the leader in all things betting – has largely shied away from meaningful current events or political props.
Even more curiously, MyBookie has posted nothing but a single 2024 Election Winner line for months (which, it should be added, features only a handful of credible pols, omits Donald Trump and Donald Trump, Jr., and brings up the rear with unrealistic celebrity candidates like Kanye West, Elon Musk, and Mark Cuban).
Of the three major Vegas election sportsbooks, only BetOnline consistently mixes things up, but even then, the selections are mostly…mundane.
Here’s the current slate of offerings from BetOnline, including some international political odds for the upcoming UK elections (whenever those are).
2021 USA Political Props
Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor by December 31, 2021?
- Yes -130
- No -110
The house is taking juice on this regardless of the side you pick, but the “Yes” is trending as a slight favorite.
For context, Andrew Cuomo (D) is up for re-election on November 8, 2022, but he’s facing a number of genuine scandals. Fortunately, the “D” after his name is an effective shield, and despite his dozens of sexual harassment scandals and his executive COVID policies that led to thousands of deaths and a DOJ coverup, he’s still polling well in the state.
Essentially, this line is asking if Cuomo will be ousted from office or step down before year’s end, and that’s a virtual impossibility.
So take the “Yes,” as those -130 odds should probably be closer to -1000. There’s good value here.
Will Andrew Cuomo be re-elected Governor in 2022 if he runs?
- Yes -250
- No +170
This depends entirely on his challengers, and none has been announced yet.
But even though the NY gubernatorial election is still a year and a half out, if the election were held today, Cuomo would likely win. New York does loves them some mobsters, after all.
Will any member of the Trump family win the 2024 Presidential election?
- No -900
- Yes +500
This is an interesting line because of the value it offers on the “Yes” at +500.
Individually, on the boards for the outright winner of the 2024 Presidential election, Trump Sr. is sitting at +700 behind Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who are somehow tied at +375.
Meanwhile, Ivanka Trump is trending at +3300, while DJTJR is pulling +5000 odds. Those latter two Trump odds are far longer than they ought to be, we think, but Senior is still the strongest candidate by far.
Frankly, we’d rather take The Donald at +700, but these are futures odds, and 2024 is a long way off. Ivanka could rise very quickly in the Republican Party if she ever throws her hat in the ring, and Junior is just about as popular as his old man.
The “Yes” at +500 on this line seems like a reasonable wager if you’re not 100% confident that 45 will take a stab at 47.
Odds To Run for US President In 2024
- Donald Trump +125
- Donald Trump Jr. +400
- Ivanka Trump +400
- Tucker Carlsson +500
- Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson +800
- Jeff Bezos +1200
- Kimberley Guilfoyle +1200
- Lara Trump +1200
- Mark Zuckerberg +1800
- Roger Stone +2000
- Scott Baio +2000
- James Woods +2500
- Michael Moore +2500
- Lebron James +3300
- Meghan Markle +3300
- Meryl Streep +4000
- Tom Hanks +4000
- Henry Winkler +5000
- Oprah Winfrey +5000
- Rosie O’Donnell +5000
This is another interesting line, mainly because the candidacy of any of the top three selections will negate the candidacies of the others in the trio.
If The Donald runs, Trump Jr. and Ivanka won’t. And thrice versa.
Of course, any of those are actually reasonable. Most of the entrants on this list are not. That said, in order for your bet to hit, any of these people simply have to announce their intent to run and file the necessary documents to make it official.
Still, in the hunt for value, we’d go on a few of these candidates to hedge our bets.
Trump Sr. and Trump Jr. both seem safe, as does The Rock, who is destined to hold some kind of political office in the near future.
Finally, we’re going on Meghan Markle at +3300. Markle has made news recently indicating that she’s interested in making a run for the Democratic Party ticket. The only issue there is she – a Woman of Color™ – may be reticent to run against another Woman of Color™ in the 2024 election.
Thus, Markle could wait until 2028. But a small bet on the expat royal poseur will still offer some insurance for the more surefire potential candidates listed at the top.
Caitlyn Jenner Specials
- Elected As State Governor or US Congress Member Before 2023 +350
- To Become California Governor before 2022 +600
- To Win Nobel Peace Prize Before 2026 +2000
- To Be 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee +10000
- To Be 2024 US Presidential Winner +20000
Will the USA boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?
- No -2500
- Yes +800
No. China Joe won’t allow it.
And frankly, he shouldn’t.
The Olympics come around only once every four years and is the height of the athletic careers for literally thousands of American citizens. Plus, people will accept almost anything in exchange for sporting entertainment.
Never bet against bread and circuses.
2021 UK Political Props
Boris Johnson Conservative Leader At Election?
- No -120
- Yes -120
But more importantly, as a coin toss with identical odds on both sides of the line, it’s best to stay away from this one.
Next Conservative Party Leader
- Rishi Sunak +200
- Michael Gove +900
- Elizabeth Truss +1000
- Jeremy Hunt +1100
- Dominic Raab +1200
- Priti Patel +1600
- Matthew Hancock +2200
- Tom Tugendhat +2200
- Jacob Rees-Mogg +2500
- Robert Jenrick +2500
- Sajid Javid +2500
- Ben Wallace +3300
- Gavin Williamson +3300
- Johnny Mercer +3300
- Grant Shapps +4000
- Mark Harper +4000
- Penny Mordaunt +4000
- Steve Baker +4000
- Tobais Ellwood +5000
- Esther McVey +6600
- Kwasi Kwarteng +6600
- Andrea Leadsom +10000
- Graham Brady +10000
- Nigel Farage +10000
- Ruth Davidson +10000
- George Osborne +20000
We’ve never heard of any of these people except Nigel Farage, and he’s already announced his retirement from politics.
Hartlepool By-Election Winning Party
- Conservatives -175
- Labour +135
- Northern Independence Party +3300
- Reform UK +8000
- Liberal Democrats +15000
The party of open borders and civilian disarmament will win. Because that’s all of them.
How the mighty have fallen…
London Mayoral Election Winner
- Sadiq Khan -10000
- Brian Rose +1800
- Shaun Bailey +1800
- Lawrence Fox +10000
- Sian Berry +15000
- Niko Omilana +25000
- Piers Corbyn +30000
- David Kurten +50000
- Kam Balayev +50000
- Luisa Porritt +50000
- Mandu Reid +50000
- Max Fosh +50000
- Nims Obunge +50000
- Peter Gammons +50000
- Richard Hewison +50000
- Steve Kelleher +50000
- Valerie Brown +50000
- Vanessa Hudson +50000
- Count Binface +100000
London might as well re-elect the guy that presided over the biggest-ever uptick in violent crime. His policies werk gud!
Where Are The Derek Chauvin Trial Odds?
The above lines are the most interesting and varied Vegas prop bets we’ve seen on the political boards this year, but one extremely relevant market is being intentionally omitted: Derek Chauvin trial odds.
While there may be “taste” considerations here, we’d still like to see these sportsbooks offer some action on the trial’s outcome.
Though there’s plenty of potential for all kinds ancillary props related to the George Floyd murder trial and its various social aftereffects, it’d be enough for the betting sites to offer simple trial outcome lines.
Yes, “Guilty” would be a heavy favorite, and “Not Guilty” would be a massive underdog with astronomical payouts, but the sweet spot – the thing that would make betters think hard and potentially earn those bettors (and the books themselves) a nice profit margin – would be a “Mistrial” selection.
And honestly, if we were betting, we’d certainly go on that latter line.
While no juror will risk their safety or the safety of their families by voting for any outcome other than “Guilty,” a mistrial – or a hung jury – is a legitimate possibility.
With activists openly declaring that anything other than a guilty verdict will lead to mass riots nationwide – and with one key witness pleading the fifth to protect against his own self-incrimination while another key witness has been photographed vandalizing police cars in several 2020 riots – there’s potential there for at least one juror to object to the process.
It’s not likely, but it would definitely get some action and help promote the top Vegas election betting sites to the mainstream market.
2021 Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Via BetOnline Sportsbook
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -150 (-155)
- No +110 (+115)
With “No” still trending in the positive, there’s still good value here. As the year wears on, however, you can expect the odds to flip-flop – just like Dementia Joe himself!