It’s been an interesting couple of days in the political space.
With the border crisis spiraling well out of control, of course, ample smokescreens have been erected to distract the rank and file partisans on the left, and the first casualty appears to be Florida US House Representative Matt Gaetz.
As a Trump friendly, Gaetz yesterday made news when it was leaked that he was considering retiring form Congress in his third term to take a high-paying job at up-and-coming conservative news outlet Newsmax.
The calculus there, presumably, is for the MAGA movement to get seasoned politicians into various pro-America news outlets prior to the launch of Trump’s social media platform, which will be completing its rollout over the next few months.
Given that the media seems to be an even bigger political powerbroker than the actual US legislature, that’s a compelling course of attack by the right.
But the left is not compelled.
So now, coincidentally, today’s big news is that Gaetz is under investigation for maintaining a relationship with a 17-year-old girl, with whom he has allegedly traveled extensively on commercial flights.
Per Gaetz, of course, the story’s not true.
Instead, Gaetz claims that he’s been targeted in a $25 million extortion scheme headed up by former political adversaries, and that he’s actually been working with the FBI and CIA in some kind of sting operation.
This operation is said to have involved Gaetz’ father wearing a wire in several meetings with the accused extorters.
Now, with the story breaking literally a day before a first-payment pow wow was set to take place, that investigation is utterly derailed.
Gaetz has called for relevant authorities to immediately release all recordings and transcripts collected in the investigation to date, but whether or that happens remains to be seen.
As for the betting lines at the top Vegas election sportsbooks, there are no Gaetz odds on the scandal just yet, but we expect to see a batch posted literally any minute.
So if you want to make a few dollars off the alleged extortion of a popular congresscritter, you should definitely bookmark the top books and check back regularly.
Naturally, as soon as such odds are posted, we’ll fill you in, too. We’ll even include some cynical real-world advice on how to wager – and win! (maybe) – on each applicable line.
With that bit of bizarre drama out of the way, there are a few other notable Vegas political props that have cropped up since last week:
2021 Political Prop Bets
Will The 2021 Masters be played at Augusta National Golf Club?
- Yes -10000
- No +1400
Georgia is currently under fire for having the audacity to pass an election integrity bill that bars ballot harvesting, bans partisan handouts of food and drink to voters standing in line, and proffers strict limits on mail-in voting (which was the absolute nationwide norm pre-2020).
Joe Biden said the GA law “makes Jim Crow look like Jim Eagle,” whatever that means.
And right on cue, the left is decrying the initiative as Racist Voter Suppression™ and is calling on Major League Baseball to ban the Georgia-based All-Star Game.
Similarly, the same losers are protesting the Masters from being contested at Augusta. Obviously, of course, Augusta is the Masters, and that’s not changing.
We’d take the “Yes” here, but considering the betting limits and those -10000 odds, the wager’s simply not worth it.
Hard pass.
Will Andrew Yang be elected the next mayor of New York City in 2021?
- Yes -210
- No +155
Almost certainly. Those -210 odds are pretty safe, so a few bucks here can’t hurt.
Odds To Win 2022 Brazilian General Election
- Jair Messias Bolsonaro -115
- Luiz Inácio “Lula” Da Silva -115
- Sergio Fernando Moro +1200
- Ciro Ferreira Gomes +1800
- Luciano Grostein Huck +2200
- João Agripino Da Costa Doria Júnior +3000
- João Dionisio Filgueira Barreto Amoêdo +3000
Jair Bolsonaro is the incumbent, and Brazil appears to have tighter election laws than the US, so he seems like a solid pick.
Of course, we don’t follow Brazilian politics and have no idea who anyone else on the boards even is.
Pass.
More 2021 Political Prop Bets
Will Andrew Cuomo be NY governor on December 31, 2021?
- No -140
- Yes +100
Don Cuomo is polling well in NY despite being the biggest scumbag on the planet, so we’re taking the “Yes” at even odds.
Next Elected Boston City Mayor 2021
- Michelle Wu -160
- Kim Janey +230
- Andrea Campbell +800
- John Barros +1200
- Annissa Essaibi George +2000
You can only #StopAsianHate by voting for Asian women, so Michelle Wu is a safe pick.
We’ve never heard of her, but she’s a safe pick.
Next Elected New York City Mayor 2021
- Andrew Yang -175
- Eric Adams +300
- Raymond McGuire +1000
- Maya Wiley +1000
- Scott Stringer +1200
- Kathryn Garcia +5000
- Shaun Donovan +5000
- Diane Morales +5000
You’ll get a better payout taking the #YangGang at BetOnline than at Bovada, so if you were going to go on this line there, we recommend taking it here, instead.
Yang all the way.
Next Elected Seattle Mayor 2021
- Loren Gonzalez -160
- Colleen Echohawk +220
- Bruce Harrell +700
- Andrew Grant Houston +1800
- Lance Randall +2000
How unfortunate.
Had Colleen Echohawk been named Colleen Ecohawk, she’d probably win this thing in a landslide. In the land of hippy dippy greenie weenie idiots, that branding would have been a marketing coup. Oh, well.
We don’t know who these people are, so we’re not betting on this line.
Will Gavin Newsom be removed from office in 2021?
- No -700
- Yes +400
California governor Gavin Newsom is the target of a recall petition over his disastrous coronavirus lockdown policies, but no meaningful voting bloc in the state actually cares.
The conservatives have the signatures, but they won’t get the votes.
“No” at -700 is a safe bet.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
For most of the past two months, BetOnline has featured odds on whether or not Creepy Uncle Basement Joe would make it through his first term as President of the United States.
While the line has favored the current White House occupant to complete his term, the tides turned almost immediately after Biden’s first press conference last week.
Dementia Joe mumbled and stuttered his way through that fiasco, flubbed a dozen or more softball questions from his sycophantic press corps, and then wandered aimlessly off the stage.
The stock market promptly dipped, the cryptocurrency market promptly skyrocketed, and BetOnline promptly took down the aforementioned Biden betting odds.
As a general rule, when lines suddenly come down at a sportsbook, that indicates that a sudden shift in action has left the book on the hook for excessive liability.
In this case, Biden’s odds to stay President through 2024 fell about 20 points right after the presser, going from -175 to -155. Meanwhile, the Biden odds to punch out before the conclusion of his first term went from +135 to +115.
That 40-point swing happened in minutes, and now the odds are gone.
If you do the math, you’ve probably already accepted a Kamala Harris presidency.
Because you know she certainly has.