Well, the world is officially on fire.
Happy Friday, everyone!
All kidding aside (Fridays haven’t been happy since October 30, 2020) , there are a few quick things to cover, albeit one of them – the biggest one by far – hasn’t yet been covered by any reputable online sportsbook.
It’s pretty political, too, which puts it firmly in our wheelhouse here at VEO.
But first things first: There are a few interesting new international politics odds available at both BetOnline and Bovada, which is a breath of fresh COVID-filled air.
Or say they say.
Anyway, while USA election odds have remained more or less stagnant over the last week, the betting lines for the upcoming German election on Sunday are getting pretty lively.
While we won’t offer any touts since we don’t live in Germany and have no frame of reference for the politics therein, we’ll show you how the odds are moving now that we’re in the homestretch.
2021 German Election Odds
Via BetOnline Sportsbook:
AFD Vote Share
- Over 12.5% -120
- Under 12.5% -120
Die Linke Vote Share
- Over 6.5% -120
- Under 6.5% -120
FDP Vote Share
- Over 11.5% -120
- Under 11.5% -120
SPD Vote Share
- Over 25.5% -120
- Under 25.5% -120
CDU/CSU Union Vote Share
- Over 23.5% -130
- Under 23.5% -110
Green Vote Share
- Over 15.5% -120
- Under 15.5% -120
German Chancellor After Election
- Olaf Scholz -425
- Armin Laschet +265
- Annalena Baerbock +1750
- Markus Soder +2500
- Angela Merkel +6500
- Christian Lindner +30000
- Alice Weidel/Tino Chupralla +50000
- Janine Wissler/Dietmar Bartsch +50000
First Government After Election
- SPD+Green+FPD +115
- SPD+Green+Linke +500
- CDU/CSU+FPD+Greens +550
- SPD+CSU/CDU +600
- SPD+Green +1000
- SPD+Green+CDU/CSU+FPD +1200
- SPD+CSU/CDU+Green +1400
- Any Coalition Including AfD +1750
- SPD+CSU/CDU+FDP +2000
- SPD+Green+CDU/CSU+FPD+Linke +4000
- CDU/CSU+Green +7500
There are also a bevy of UK political betting odds available for the 2024 election and a smattering of French election lines for 2022.
However – and far more interestingly – today is the first time any major US-facing Vegas election betting site has posted odds for the 2022 Philippines Presidential election.
If you haven’t been paying attention, President Rodrigo Duterte is term limited and will be running for VP, while his party’s nominee – legendary boxer Manny Pacquiao – will be at the top of the ticket.
A Pacquiao-Duterte ticket is kinda sorta vaguely in a manner of speaking the Philippine equivalent of a Trump-DeSantis ticket, only in reverse.
People are excited, to say the least.
Of course, PacMan’s not a sure thing to win, and due to the peculiarities of the Philippine model of governance, that means Duterte – who is favored to win the VP race – could serve under a different President from a different party.
2022 Philippine Election Odds
Via BetOnline Sportsbook:
Presidential Election Winner
- Manny Pacquiao +100
- Sara Duterte-Carpio +200
- Bong Go +400
- Bongbong Marcos +800
- Leni Robredo +2500
- Alan Peter Cayetano +5000
- Antonio Trillanes +5000
Will Manny Pacquiao be the next President of the Philippines?
- No -140
- Yes +100
Via Bovada Sportsbook:
Odds To Win 2022 Presidential Election In The Philippines
- Manny Pacquiao +110
- Sara Duterte +300
- Bong Go +350
- Bongbong Marcos +1400
- Leni Robredo +1400
- Alan Peter Cayetano +2500
- Panfilo Lacson +2500
- Antonio Trillanes +4000
- Sonny Angara +4000
Now, it’s important to point out that while the “Manny Pacquiao for President” movement is officially underway given that he’s declared for the race and accepted the PDP-Laban party’s nomination, only two other candidates have thrown their hats in the ring: Senator Panfilo Lacson and Manila mayor Isko Moreno.
While Lacson’s on the boards, Moreno isn’t. Yet.
Making matters more interesting still, Sara Duterte-Carpio – daughter of President Duterte and current mayor of Davao City – has “officially” declined to run for the post.
The reason she’s trending in second place behind Pacquiao, of course, is that she could always change her mind, and a Duterte-Duterte ticket would be even more compelling than a PacMan-Duterte ticket.
For what it’s worth, Duterte-Carpio is the most popular Philippine Presidential candidate by far according to ongoing national polling in the islands.
It’s also worth pointing out that, at this point, Senator Bong Go has similarly declined to run but is nevertheless trending in third place.
Now, with all that out of the way, here’s the biggest story of the day/week/month/year:
China has declared that all cryptocurrency trading is illegal.
As an online sports bettor, you probably use crypto regularly to deposit and withdraw.
As a person with a functioning brainstem, you probably also have various crypto investments to hedge against the looming collapse of the worthless American dollar.
You may be worried.
But you shouldn’t be.
In the wake of this seemingly earth-shattering news, the crypto market hasn’t budged meaningfully from its daily average fluctuations, and China utterly lacks the wherewithal to enforce its own ridiculous law.
(It should be pointed out that this ruling comes on the heels of the catastrophic Evergrande collapse, which has seen countless affected parties utilize Bitcoin as a means to bail themselves out. China can’t allow that, of course, which is why crypto trading has been suspended in the country. Unless you’re a big, registered business in China, then, you should go about your business as usual.)
Additionally, while China has outsize influence on the value of the US dollar, the Euro, and even the GBP, it hasn’t got much influence over the value of cryptocurrency.
Remember, the entire point of crypto is that it’s effectively decentralized.
That is, no government can tank the market by instituting external controls or declaring crypto to be illegal.
If that’s all it took, it’d have been done ages ago.
Mt. Gox couldn’t kill Bitcoin, the Silk Road couldn’t kill Monero, the SEC couldn’t kill Ripple, and China can’t kill crypto.
The only thing that might happen is a small additional dip, which means you’ve got a great opportunity to buy more cryptocurrency right now.
So pledge allegiance to yourself and do so immediately.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
There’s been no movement since last time we gave Dementia Joe his twice-weekly checkup, so the following odds are posted here to serve as a simple reminder.
Just not for the “President.”
He can’t even remember what day it is.
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -175 (-175)
- No +135 (+135)
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 +110(+110)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +400 (+400)
- 2021 +550 (+550)
- 2023 +750 (+750)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1200 (-1200)
- Yes +500 (+500)
Joe Biden Approval Rating On October 1, 2021
- Over 46% -140 (46% -140)
- Under 46% +100 (46% +100)