Given that there’s nothing new on the Vegas election odds boards today, we’re going to dish a bit about betting strategy.
Specifically, political futures betting strategy.
Naturally, because elections aren’t held 24/7, most of the wagers you’ll place – particularly in off years – are going to be political futures bets.
The main distinction between political props and futures is that the former tend to vest in the near term, while the latter are a long way off.
For example, if you check out the international election odds boards, you’ll see that the German national election is slated for Sunday, September 26, 2021.
It’s currently Wednesday, September 22, 2021.
Outside of the main races, the odds surrounding the German election outcome are props.
You can bet now, and barring recounts ad nauseum, you’ll get your winnings credited within the week.
However, if you head over to the US Presidential election odds boards, you’ll see that most of those don’t vest until late 2024 at the earliest.
These, then, are futures.
And futures, by and large, are for casual bettors.
Professionals don’t wager on them because such bets tie up their money for the duration, limiting their opportunities to go on other more pressing lines.
But you’re likely a casual bettor, so that isn’t really a problem. You can afford to have a few bucks hanging out there for the long haul.
There is, however, an exception, and it’s one that you absolutely must take under consideration.
If you have accepted an online betting bonus, you need to factor in your futures bets accordingly.
And remember, bonuses work differently at different sites.
For example, at Bovada, members typically have six months to meet their bonus rollover terms. This is plenty of time for the vast majority of players in the vast majority of markets.
At BetOnline, on the other hand, bonuses come with a 30-day time limit.
Meanwhile, MyBookie currently applies no time limit on their bonus rollover obligations.
Nevertheless, all three operators have the same general rules:
You cannot withdraw any winnings associated with a given withdrawal + bonus combo until all rollover terms have been met.
Additionally, all sites credit your account in at least two different ways: your real-money deposit balance and your bonus balance. (Bovada uses a third “locked funds” category as well, the utility of which is explained simply at the site itself.)
Now, when you make a wager, you’ll either get to choose which balance you’re wagering from, or the site will have an automatic hierarchy of how the funds are applied as wagers.
But again, for all intents and purposes, these online gambling bonuses all work the same way.
Here’s where futures betting comes in:
If you place a wager on a political future that won’t vest within the next six months (Bovada) or 30 days (BetOnline), you must factor in the amount of this wager and eliminate it from your bonus rollover requirement.
In other words, you should not consider this bet to contribute to rollover.
This isn’t because the bet is exempt from bonus contribution by rule, but rather because the finalization of the bet won’t occur within your bonus time limit (excepting at MyBookie).
All the best sites are very good about showing you exactly how much money remains in each account balance type along with the required gambling volume remaining on any active bonus, and they do factor in this lead time, albeit not specifically.
You will have to do that for yourself.
MyBookie explains why in its TOS, and all online Vegas political sportsbooks have the same rule in play:
“Rollover calculations do not include any pending wagers. Only settled wagers with a status of win or loss count toward the rollover requirement.”
To put it another way, any money you have locked up in a futures bet will not count toward your bonus contribution.
Let’s say you bet $100 on Donald Trump’s 2024 chances to win the US presidency.
That wager cannot be settled until November 2025 at the earliest (unless Trump is somehow eliminated from contention or eligibility in the meantime).
Now, let’s say that you had an active bonus with a $750 total rollover requirement at the book where you placed this bet.
You have six months to meet this requirement in order to qualify for a withdrawal.
So including the above Trump line, you’ve wagered $750.
You request a withdrawal.
That withdrawal is denied.
That’s because you still have to bet another $100 on something before you can pull your money out. The Trump bet, remember, is unsettled.
Again, your sportsbook will keep track of all this for you numerically, but you have to understand the disparities between those numbers and your actual wagering volume so you can be confident that you aren’t be nickeled and dimed.
As with everything else, trust but verify.
Your sportsbook automatically accounts for settled vs. unsettled wagers in your account balances, but if you don’t understand the whys and wherefores, you may think you’re being taken for a ride when everything’s perfectly on the up and up.
And keep in mind that we’re not saying not to bet on political futures. We do it all the time, and we also never deposit without accepting an offered bonus.
We’re just saying to keep everything organized.
Politics is a hoodwink even when you understand the rules, while political betting is anything but.
2021 Joe Biden Presidential Mental Fitness Test Update
Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?
- Yes -175 (-175)
- No +135 (+135)
For the millionth time, no.
Year That Joe Biden Exits Office
- 2025 +110(+110)
- 2022 +400 (+400)
- Not Before 2026 +400 (+400)
- 2021 +550 (+550)
- 2023 +750 (+750)
- 2024 +1400 (+1400)
Pick any three.
Just be sure to exclude 2025 and 2026.
Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?
- No -1200 (-1200)
- Yes +500 (+500)
Never.
Joe Biden Approval Rating On October 1, 2021
- Over 46% -140 (46% -120)
- Under 46% +100 (46% -120)
Finally, some movement!
And as predicted, movement in Biden’s favor.
After countless firms fudged their polling methods to boost the “President’s” approval ratings, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight is finally showing a bit of bump for Johammad bin Biden™.
Take the over, even at -140.