With impeachment proceedings over for the time being (we expect a third Trump impeachment at some point, now that private citizens can have such charges brought), sportsbooks are running low on fodder for their political gambling boards.
While sites dedicated entirely to Vegas political props could probably muster up bet after bet on even the most mundane procedural nonsense, international sportsbooks cover dozens of leagues and post thousands of betting lines each day.
Sports are their priorities, obviously.
Meanwhile, elections are only held every couple of years, and without a firebrand like Trump making daily headlines, there’s very little action to be had.
But that doesn’t mean the market’s going on hiatus.
Not even remotely.
In addition to exposing the uniparty, breaking the Democrats, hoisting the GOP on its own petard, pulling back the veil on a biased mainstream media, and pushing Hollywood over the cliff of its own discontent (winter notwithstanding), Trump has also made political betting a permanent fixture at the best online sportsbooks.
Because of Trump, various nominees for various state positions – those who would be otherwise overlooked and dismissed offhand – have seen some measure of celebrity in their opposition to the Bad Orange Man™.
That’s why you’re getting lines like these:
US Mayoral And Gubernatorial Election Odds
Next Elected Mayor Of New York City
- Andrew Yang -110
- Eric Adams +350
- Scott Stringer +475
- Maya Wiley +950
- Raymond McGuire +1200
- Dianne Morales +3000
- Kathryn Garcia +3000
- Shaun Donovan +3000
- Carlos Menchaca +8000
Will Andrew Yang be elected the next mayor of New York City?
- No -120
- Yes -110
Next Elected New York City Mayor 2021
- Andrew Yang -175
- Eric Adams +275
- Scott Stringer +750
- Maya Wiley +1400
- Raymond McGuire +1400
- Diane Morales +5000
- Kathryn Garcia +5000
- Shaun Donovan +5000
Next Elected Boston City Mayor 2021
- Michelle Wu -150
- Kim Janey +220
- Andrea Campbell +600
- Annissa Essaibi George +900
Will Andrew Cuomo be reelected if he runs for Governor of New York in 2022?
- No -200
- Yes +150
Now, it’s not really a surprise that election betting sites would cover Andrew Yang’s next moves.
Yang emerged as one of the most popular candidates in the 2020 Democratic Presidential primaries, getting far and away the most Google searches of anyone on that side this side of Tulsi Gabbard.
And even as the victim of a concerted media blackout effort (which is meticulously documented and worth a trip down the rabbit hole for anyone interested in seedy underbellies), Yang emerged as a true force in US politics.
It also helped that he had the best web store of any Presidential candidate other than The Master himself. (Somehow, Yang has no official merch or store for his mayoral campaign, which is disappointing.)
Thus, Yang’s political future will certainly be followed closely by the public, and betting sites know that such interest often translates into betting interest.
Indeed, Yang is favored to ride his celebrity and comical science fiction socialism to a win in NYC.
And that’s just for starters.
Most Vegas election betting sites have Yang’s odds to become the 47th US President of the United States trending high atop the betting boards.
At Bovada, Yang is pulling +1600 odds to be the 2024 Democratic candidate and +3000 odds to be the winner of the general election.
Meanwhile, BetOnline has Yang sitting at +2000 to win the DNC nod and +5000 to become POTUS.
But again, none of this is noteworthy, because Yang himself is noteworthy. We expect to see these lines at the best betting sites.
What we didn’t expect was the trickle-down effect at the local level.
Historically, election betting oddsmakers favor federal races over state races over local races. That’s why you see so many lines for President, House representative, US Senator, and so on.
Less often, you see lines for state races – and when you do, they’re usually for gubernatorial elections in contested states.
What you almost never see covered by sportsbooks are mayoral races. Even in big cities, these get very little press outside of their confined geographic areas.
When something is that insular, you won’t typically don’t get betting odds for it, as these odds are designed to appeal to as broad a clientele as possible.
But Trump, as you can see, has changed that game, too.
Look, we can’t speak for anyone else, but we don’t even know who the current mayor of Boston is. It goes without saying that we’ve never heard of Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, or Annissa Essaibi George.
Until now. Because of The Donald.
As for the Andrew Cuomo prop at BetOnline, there seems little chance that the amateur mafioso will attempt to run for governor of NY in 2022.
He’s in the middle of a potential impeachment of his own (for which we expect to see impeachment odds posted shortly), as his administration has been charged with lying about COVID death data in New York state nursing homes.
As a refresher, back in 2020, Cuomo famously mandated that elderly COVID-positive patients be returned to their nursing homes while sick, putting the most vulnerable population at significant risk despite plenty of space in local hospitals statewide.
As a result, NY’s nursing home residents suffered the highest rate of coronavirus-related deaths in the country, and the total as reported now appears to be only about 60% of the actual death toll.
That kind of baggage – whether it’s due to evil, arrogance, indifference, or plain old stupidity – is unlikely to get any pol reelected.
And Cuomo’s TV anchor brother isn’t doing him any favors, either.
Amusingly, despite Andrew Coma being strongly favored to lose reelection (if he runs, which he won’t), the guy is still trending at the middle of the pack to earn the Democratic nomination for President in 2024.
At Bovada, Cuomo has odds of +1600 to win the party nomination and +5000 to win the White House. BetOnline puts his chances at +2800 and +7500, respectively.
But, of course, “yikes” is the appropriate reaction to most of this stuff, and you’ll be saying it a lot going forward.
In other words, if you’ve come to enjoy political betting as much as we have, there’s good news:
The market is here to stay.
And like him or hate him, you can thank Mr. Trump for that.