When it comes to betting on elections, orange is the new black.
For last week’s Democratic National Convention, not one online political betting site posted even a single prop line for anything scheduled to take place over the four-day event.
This week, however, at least one sportsbook – BetOnline – has gone all in on props for the Republican National Convention. The book has just followed up its first batch of RNC props with new selections for the convention’s finale.
While it’s nice to have a smattering of fun political props on which to wager, the simple fact that one of America’s highest-volume books is offering such lines only on the RNC speaks volumes.
That is, the existence of this market doesn’t just mean you’ll have something lighthearted and interesting to bet on this week, it’s also a strong indicator that the majority of bettors placing wagers on the 2020 Presidential election are doing so from the Republican side of the aisle.
This, of course, jibes with earlier reports that much more action has been consistently coming in on Donald Trump than Joe Biden, even if more money is being wagered on the challenger rather than the incumbent.
For betting, the money matters. But when it comes to tallying up votes, the bettor who put $200 on Biden counts for exactly as much as the bettor who put $10 on Trump. If you have two of the latter, that $20 “wins” at the ballot box, 2-1.
How this volume of support might influence your wagers on the winner of the Presidential race itself is up to you, but using the old metric that odds are as good as (or better than) polls when predicting election outcomes, so too should that volume of support be a predictor, even when the odds are going the other way.
At the very least, this reality should be food for thought for election bettors – something to strongly consider given the ever-narrowing gap between Biden vs. Trump at the best election betting sites.
Of course, you can bet on the election outcome anytime. But these RNC Day 4 props will only be live for then next 12-24 hours at most. If you want to wager on the following Republican National Convention odds, you need to do so immediately.
2020 Republican National Convention Prop Bets
Will Dana White mention that President Trump attended a UFC event?
- No -250
- Yes +170
This one’s a tossup. Much of Dana White’s relationship with Trump is predicated on the latter’s UFC fandom, so there are undoubtedly several stories White could tell about The Donald attending various high-profile fights (and the nature of their discussions during such).
How many times will Dana White say “fight(s),” “fighter(s),” or “Fighting”?
- Under 8½ Times -200
- Over 8½ Times +150
Another tossup. White will only be speaking for a few minutes and probably doesn’t want to sound like a broken record. On the other hand, if the theme of White’s speech is that Trump is a “fighter,” the over could easily hit.
Will Dana White mention a current UFC fighter’s name?
- No -1000
- Yes +550
Probably not. We’d take the “No” on this one.
Dana White’s Primary Shirt Color:
- White +200
- Blue +300
- Black +350
- Gray +375
- Red +750
Pick your poison. Note: This wager has action, which means that if White wears some color of shirt not listed above, you lose the bet.
Total times Dana White Says “Trump”:
- Over 5½ Times -140
- Under 5½ Times +100 (EVEN)
Take the over. The RNC is all about Trump, after all.
Total Times Dana White says “UFC”
- Under 3½ Times -170
- Over 3½ Times +130
White probably doesn’t want to use the RNC as a promotional platform for the UFC. The optics of that wouldn’t be particularly helpful for anyone involved. Take the under.
What will Dana White say first?
- “Ultimate Fighting Championship” -250
- “UFC” +170
“UFC” all the way. Nobody on earth calls it the “Ultimate Fighting Championship” except for lawyers, athletic commissions, and the IRS.
Will Dana White say “Donald”?
- Yes -200
- No +150
Will Dana White say “Make America Great Again”?
- No -500
- Yes +300
Given that MAGA isn’t the official slogan of the Trump 2020 campaign, this seems unlikely. KAG, maybe. MAGA, probably not.
To append the above with an alternative viewpoint, a counterargument could be made that all of these lines are only being offered on the RNC (this time around) because Dana White is their subject.
White, of course, is the president of the UFC, one of the most prominent and successful sporting promotions in the world, and BetOnline is primarily a sportsbook.
In an effort to attract sports bettors who aren’t politics bettors, these lines make lots of sense as a promotional tool to expand the reach of BetOnline’s election odds to that bigger market.
Nevertheless, it remains undeniable that the RNC is clearly more popular for bettors than the Democratic National Convention.
All we need now are the TV ratings.