Nineteen years ago today, America was unified in a way that seems utterly alien now, as the nation is more ideologically divided than ever.
And while we should never forget, it seems many have done exactly that.
On a day that – in recent years – has come to define American unity, exceptionalism, and resiliency and triumph in the face of tremendous adversity, the country continues its backslide into hyperpartisanship across the ideological divide.
For the 2020 election season, the real issue is whether or not the US can get back to that unity. Such an outcome is possible, even if it seems unlikely, but it will take time.
There is no Band-Aid to cure what ails us.
In the meantime, the only thing you can do is live your morals and hope others catch on.
And while some old-fashioned folks view betting as immoral, we think it’s a pretty great way to disconnect from the raw emotion of the political machine and actually have a little fun with it.
To keep your sanity, you might have to treat this slog like the game politicians seem to think it is.
Of course, with the constant flux of money favoring Donald Trump’s odds one day and Joe Biden’s chances the next, it can be difficult to see where to find an edge.
After Trump overtook Basement Joe last week, Hidin’ Biden is back in the lead at two of the three major political betting sites.
The biggest shift comes courtesy of BetOnline, where Trump’s odds were recently trending at -120 before falling 30 points to +110 today.
It seems bettors liked the value of Biden at +100 enough to shift the lines, and that back-and-forth is going to keep happening right up until Election Day on November 3.
We’ve discussed at length what gamblers should look for at Vegas political betting sites to gain an edge. These include things like national and regional polls, news article reader comments, social media likes and replies, Presidential prediction markets, and the current odds themselves.
But now there’s another metric to add to your arsenal: Sports fans and their reactions to the social justice climates demonstrated on the fields of play.
People in the US take their favorite sports very seriously, and the presence of political odds at legitimate online sportsbooks highlights that reality.
In fact, the US sports market is so powerful that the Trump campaign is using collegiate athletics cancellations as a wedge issue in several states.
In Michigan, Trump has accused Gov. Gretchen Whitmer – already the subject of a recall petition due to her draconian coronavirus lockdowns – of torpedoing college football in the state:
“We want a governor that’s going to let Michigan play Big 10 football this year. …
You would be better if you had a governor who knew what the hell what she was doing.”
Compounding this, as stated, is that many of the sports that have returned to action – namely the NFL, which kicked off its season last night in Missouri as the Kansas City Chiefs easily covered the spread against the Houston Texans – are embracing the BLM movement and its Mostly Peaceful Protests™.
In swing state Wisconsin, a new Marquette University Law School poll found that the support for BLM there is continuing to crater, with the state’s likely voters disapproving of the movement 49% to 46%.
Just weeks ago, when favor for these events first started to sour, approval and disapproval had an even 50-50 split at 48% apiece. Compare these figures to mid-June, when Wisconsin’s likely voters supported BLM by 61% to 36%, and it’s easy to see that the momentum is entirely in Trump’s favor.
But polls are one thing. Public sentiment – measured quite differently – is often quite another.
Case in point: The Chiefs’ home crowd reaction to the pre-game politicization of football. The boo birds were definitely out en masse:
Of course, the caveat here is that loud cheering followed the initial boos.
But with such a thin crowd due to COVID-19 restrictions, there’s some question about how many of those cheers were “piped in” via the stadium’s PA system, which is a tactic many leagues have openly embraced due to their mostly empty stadiums and arenas.
Of course, Missouri is Trump territory, and the state is not considered up for grabs by the left by any stretch of the imagination.
The real measure of fan support – and thus, to a degree, voter support – of these heavy-handed social justice initiatives will come this weekend as the rest of the 2020 NFL season gets underway with games in both conservative-leaning and liberal-leaning states.
Pay close attention to that, because we get the feeling that the odds will shift bigly yet again after Week 1.
2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker: 9/11/20
- Joe Biden -115
- Donald Trump -105
- Joe Biden -130
- Donald Trump +110
- Donald Trump -125
- Joe Biden -105