If you thought the Democratic candidates were going to win big in Georgia’s Senate runoffs, we hope you bet early and often.
You know, the same way people apparently vote for these folks.
That’s because the tables have turned in force: Both Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are now consensus favorites, pulling odds that pay out at a comparative pittance when measured against what they were just a few weeks ago.
When the best online Vegas political betting sites started posting odds on GA’s winner-take-all January races shortly after the November general election, all three services had Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue up bigly.
Of course, given the shenanigans that took place in the Peach State during the Presidential election, such lines seemed highly suspect, and we’ve been blowing the whistle on them since they were first published.
We hope you listened.
Today, you can see where each candidate is trending on the betting boards, with their starting odds listed in parentheses:
2021 GA Senate Runoff Odds
- Raphael Warnock -220 (+110)
- Kelly Loeffler +165 (-145)
- Jon Ossoff -135 (+150)
- David Perdue +105 (-200)
Since December 7, when the top online sportsbooks started posting US Senate odds for the Georgia runoff, the Democrats have slowly chipped away at the GOP leads in both races. Now, they’re ahead.
And, like the current Bitcoin price spike, most of the movement happened in the last couple of weeks.
Warnock started out fairly close to even at +110, while Loeffler opened at -145, making her a 55-point favorite.
Today, just one day out from the January 5 election, Warnock is in a commanding lead, puling -220 odds compared to Loeffler’s +165.
In other words, Warnock picked up 130 points, while Loeffler lost 110 points. Warnock is now ahead by a 185-point margin at Bovada, the largest delta at any site. That’s a 240-point swing.
In the other race, Perdue started off reasonably well. He won the November election by a few percentage points and by all rights seemed primed to keep the Senate firmly in Republican control.
But the GOP might be sweating, because Perdue’s lead has leaked all the way out.
The tank is empty.
When this thing started, Perdue was pulling -200 odds, while Ossoff was trending at +150, which was a 150-point lead for the Republican. Now, Ossoff has gained 85 points, Perdue has lost 95 points, and the Democratic challenger is up by 30.
And, of course, duh.
- Raphael Warnock -200 (+135)
- Kelly Loeffler +160 (-165)
- Jon Ossoff -130 (+160)
- David Perdue +100 (-200)
The story is much the same at BetOnline.
At the outset, Loeffler was up on Warnock by a baffling 100 points. She’s now down 160 points, for a 260-point swing.
Similarly, Ossoff was an even more baffling 160 points behind Perdue, but he’s now up 30 for a 190-point swing.
These odds are much more in line with what they should be, all things considered (except the will of the actual voter, which should no longer be a factor in political betting going forward).
- Raphael Warnock -120 (+150)
- Kelly Loeffler -120 (-200)
- David Perdue -130 (-220)
- Jon Ossoff -110 (+155)
MyBookie is the only real outlier, but that’s sort of been their calling card for the 2020 election cycle.
If you wanted dramatically different odds from the other big books – or if you wanted amusing debate odds and off-the-wall lines – you probably made MyBookie your bookie at some point in the last year.
Today, those betting on the GOP will get the best payouts from MyBookie.
Yes, the races have swung in the Democrats’ favor, but Loeffler and Warnock are now merely tied, while Perdue maintains a slim 20-point lead on Ossoff.
Still, the swings have been palpable: 150 points for Loeffler vs. Warnock and 155 points for Perdue vs. Ossoff.
Honestly, none of this should come as a surprise to anyone that’s been paying attention.
We warned you before that these lines were ignoring reality, that bettors picking the GOP in GA (of all places) were smoking something we can’t find around here but desperately need in these trying times.
From a previous plea on the subject:
“Remember the stakes: The Georgia Senate runoffs are the difference between a Democratic governmental trifecta and the GOP being able provide a crucial check and balance in the upper chamber of congress.
This, to the hucksters that risked it all just a month and a half ago, isn’t going to go ignored. They aren’t going to give up at the finish line.
If you’re a bettor and just saw what took place on November 3-4, you have zero rational reason to pick either Republican candidate in this one.”
So, props if you heeded the warning.
Like, for example, these political props at BetOnline:
2021 Political Props
GA Senate Election – Total Candidates to reach 3 million votes on January 5
- Under 1 Total Candidate -150
- Over 1 Total Candidate +110
This is a tough one. In the Perdue-Ossoff race, the November totals were (allegedly) 2,462,617 for Perdue and 2,374,519 for Ossoff.
Another 115,000 or so votes went for Libertarian Shane Hazel.
Even accounting for all of the latter, neither candidate seems likely to break three million votes, and there is no precedent for a runoff election garnering more total votes than the general.
Of course, this is a different kind of election, and it seems trivial to print up 700,000 or so ballots to boost whichever candidate needs boosting.
For Loeffler-Warnock, November’s totals were lower, but the field was more stacked. Warnock got 1,617,035 votes, while Loeffler got 1,273,214 votes.
Other Republicans and right-leaning independents (i.e. Libertarians) received the following vote totals in that race:
- Doug Collins (R) – 980,454
- Derrick Grayson (R) – 51,592
- Annette Jackson (R) – 44,945
- Kandiss Taylor (R) – 40,349
- Wayne Johnson (R) – 36,176
- Brian Slowinski (LP) – 35,431
That’s 1,188,947 votes. If Loeffler gets all of the above and keeps her current tally in the runoff, she’d finish with 2,462,191 votes, well short of the three million threshold. Basically in line with Perdue.
Other Democrats, Green Party candidates, and left-leaning independents netted 835,775 votes. Should Warnock take all those, his total would be 2,452,810.
Again, well short of the threshold. But well within a few printers’ capabilities.
Who will tweet “Georgia” last on January 5 (by 11:59 PM EST)?
- Donald Trump -250
- Joe Biden +170
Trump, obviously. Those -250 odds should be -10000.
How many state’s votes will be objected?
- Under 2.5 States -200
- Over 2.5 States +150
This one is nebulous, but BetOnline explains the terms this way:
“During Electoral College Ratification. Total number of states objected by Congress during joint session on 1/6/21 that lead to formal chamber debate.”
A state objection seems to mean any objection by any House representative. Since over 100 GOP House members have already signaled their intent to object – and since it takes just one objection (seconded) to “lead to formal chamber debate,” the odds should not be as listed above.
This wager doesn’t seem to be aligned with procedural reality in any tangible way, so we advise passing.
BetOnline, clarify this thing!
How many US Senators will object to Electoral College ratification?
- Under 11.5 -200
- Over 11.5 +150
So far, nearly a dozen US senators have indicated plans to object ratification.
You can probably add Loeffler and Perdue to that tally whether they win or lose their GA runoffs, so the over and its +150 odds seem like a good risk here.
Will Congress appoint an Electoral Commission?
- No -2500
- Yes +800
Things could certainly change, but this seems unlikely. The House Democrats would need to approve of such in reasonably high number, and there is no incentive for them to do so.
Many GOPers will also reject such an initiative.
However, the betting limits make those -2500 odds less than compelling. But if you want to win $10 or so, there are certainly worse ways to go about it.
Will Electoral College ratification reach Day 2?
- No -750
- Yes +450
This is a tossup. The procedure can certainly be delayed or filibustered, and that is a tool in VP Mike Pence’s arsenal if he wants to use it. But his desire to do so is a real question.
That said, given the tossup status and the wildly divergent odds, we’re taking the “Yes” at +450.